Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Q2 2025 Earnings Call (Q&A for Sell-side Analysts) - Oslo Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Markets Equities - Analyst : Yes, good morning, and thanks for taking my question and congratulations on very strong results this quarter. So I guess my question is just around private Norway and the claims development this quarter were, kind of nominally speaking, you're down 10% year-over-year. And you say sort of some of that is driven by weather, and it also looks like quite a lot of it is driven by the fires that occurred in Q2 '24. So I guess my question is a little bit around what should we -- or what is your expectation going into the second half of this year for the sort of nominal development in claims? And then the second part of that question is also, I guess, as you're saying, you're kind of very confident about your pricing measures so far. So the only uncertainty kind of lies within the large losses, as I see it. And how kind of certain can you be on the NOK2 billion guidance that you reiterate when you're at NOK1.2 billion so far this year? Thank you.

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Markets Equities - Analyst : Okay. Thank you very much.

Question: David Barma - Bank of America - Analyst : Good morning thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, on property particularly, it seems that in Q1, you expected a faster price increase and a sharper improvement of profitability in 2026. I'm just reading the slides you have at the beginning with the price increases and the frequency and severity. Has this changed a bit between Q1 and Q2? It seems like your expectations there have reduced a bit. So that's my first question. And then secondly, on the investment portfolio. So real estate started contributing nicely to the free portfolio investment results. Are you at the target allocation to the asset class now? And you also mentioned the nonrecurring item and the real estate results. How much was that, please?

Question: Ulrik Zurcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Yeah, thank you. Just one question. Can you -- is it possible to quantify the impact that lower claims frequency had on the -- if our property in

Question: Ulrik Zurcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : A bit differently then. Are you happy with like overall level of the group combined ratio this quarter? Yes, you were lucky. But it's also roughly where you need to be in the summer quarter to reach your target for '26. Is that correct?

Question: Ulrik Zurcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Because I just see it as like Denmark, you still want to improve Denmark, of course, on the retail side. And you're still repricing above claims inflation in Norway. So I'm just trying to think about sort of the run rate when all these price increases come through versus the tailwinds you had on the frequency. Yes, okay, but I understand you don't want to give that to those numbers.

Question: Ulrik Zurcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Fine, thank you so much.

Question: Michele Ballatore - Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc - Analyst : Yes, thank you for taking my question. So I'm just wondering, I mean, the improvement was very strong. And of course, we have -- we can see a bit the frequency. Especially in property, the improvement was also particularly strong. My question, I guess, is I'm trying to understand the contribution from the pricing improvement that you are doing? To what extent this improvement of the pricing -- I mean, how far are doing in the process? If we look at 2025, do you still need to increase prices? I mean, yeah I guess my question is how far you are in the process in terms of, let's say, improving the overall pricing of your portfolio? Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies.

Question: Michele Ballatore - Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc - Analyst : Okay, thank you. And I don't know if I can specifically follow up on a second question. Regarding the investigation in Denmark on the pricing -- on the indexation. So I just wanted to know your point of view on this also considering your growth prospects there.

Question: Michele Ballatore - Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc - Analyst : Okay. So a suggested change in behavior, if this investigation will lead to that, you see as a positive development.

Question: Michele Ballatore - Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc - Analyst : Thank you.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediabanca - Analyst : Yes, good morning. So just for the one question I would choose from my side is really so we've seen that Q2 was very good from lower fires, from slightly tipping frequency. And I'm just curious, what's driving the outlook improvement for the inflation? I think it's about 1 point improvement in both motor and in private clients in Norway. And I'm just curious why we think that is happening. Because we just had a good quarter? Or is it something else you have seen or expecting? And linked to that, obviously, is that the pricing is tapering off from your side, which is following that outlook. So I'm just curious about the outlook for inflation, which is lower and the drivers? Thank you.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediabanca - Analyst : Okay. Thank you very much.

Question: Fredrik Stiehl - ABG - Analyst : Hi, thank you for taking my question. I have a question about if you can make a comment on your current hit ratio. And if you can comment on the decline in the pricing measures as splitted into how much of it comes from us rolling one quarter forward? And how much of it is from you actively taking down your repricing?

Question: Fredrik Stiehl - ABG - Analyst : Yeah. It was about repark pricing measures. It's down in property from 17.5 to 14.5, and then motor is also down. And I was wondering how much of the decline is from us comparing a different quarter. We have rolled one quarter ahead. And how much of the decline is from you actively taking down the pricing measures?

Question: Fredrik Stiehl - ABG - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. So the first question, if I could go back on the topic of claims inflation and the fact that we've moderated your expectations. I think you touched on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty earlier on. But could you just elaborate what are your assumptions around that? And whether the top end of the inflation range essentially is your expectation if some of your fees around tariffs, et cetera, materialize. That's my first question. And if I could ask the second question just on your pricing. I think the gap between pricing and severities are around 9, 10 points. This is still very high. And does this setup you in a position to potentially outperform your own target in the next couple of years?

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Okay. Fair enough.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Sorry. Sorry, I couldn't quite catch your question.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : I mean if you maintain that kind of gap between pricing and inflation, then already, if you normalize your combined ratio, you're below 80%. That means if you maintain this kind of pricing, you'll probably outperform your own combined ratio target. So --

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : All right, okay. Thank you.