Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (Q&A for Sell-side Analysts) - Oslo Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: David Barma - Bank of America - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, I wanted to ask about your, the performance in private lines in Norway. Please, could you come back on the quarterly deterioration and the underlying loss ratio in that in that segment? Is there anything particular in there or is it just a typical Q1 seasonality that we're seeing, and also if you can touch on the. The prior year releases in the period which were particularly low. I'll start with this and then I just have a second question.

Question: David Barma - Bank of America - Analyst : Yeah, I'm just thinking compared to the to the last few, to the last few quarters, is it just a bit of weather frequency in Q1 that's driving the uptake not compared to Q1 last year but compared to the rest of 24.

Question: David Barma - Bank of America - Analyst : Got it, thank you. Can I ask a second question please on the on Denmark and is there any comments that you could that you could share on the on the competition authority inquiry into different pricing practices for existing and new customers and on indexation. Thank You.

Question: David Barma - Bank of America - Analyst : Thank you.

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. Just on private Norway because because I earned premiums is up 10% plus year on year and one year ago you guided on just like roughly 10% growth in in 24 and now it seems like you. Basically have doubled this, not fully, but it's almost doubled what you say you're doing. So does that mean on the flat retention ratios that the private premiums in Norway next year might approach almost a 20% growth rate?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Yeah, and this will take is a typical cycle here that when you start in April now you lift it a little bit that will go through like obviously you can change based on stuff that's happening, but basically that will then go through it takes 12 months to 18 months to get it through the P&L.

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Yeah, and also on Denmark because I just on the trailing 12 month underwriting result in Denmark, now you need to lift that 50% to reach your target in '26 of over DKK750 million is it possible to reach that target now in Denmark, like in one year?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Okay, so we shouldn't see it if you lift up a little bit that this bit of a bad momentum in Denmark, it won't interfere with your group combined racial target, do you think or?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea Markets - Analyst : Okay thank you.

Question: Hans Rettedal - Danske Bank - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. So, I just wanted to go back to an earlier question on the development in the underlying frequency loss ratio in Norway, which is sort of on a reported basis down 5% year on year, which is good to see. But then in Q4, last quarter, it was down 10% year on year. So I'm trying to understand how we should think about that delta, specifically then how much of the Q4 decline was driven by the synergy realization that you spoke about earlier in the quarter where you had an update, and if you say that the frequencies are stable in Q1. We then interpret it as sort of severity being higher than in Q4.

Question: Hans Rettedal - Danske Bank - Analyst : And maybe just on the synergies where you announced sort of NOK800 million in claims synergies taken out during the second half of last year. Could you kind of quantify the effect of that?

Question: Hans Rettedal - Danske Bank - Analyst : Okay, thank you.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Good morning, everyone. So I'll start with two questions, please. The first one is just on your pricing in Norway across miter property. I mean, your potential has been very stable despite quite high price increases. Are you, and then you're still planning to actually step it up this year. Are you seeing any changes in competitive pricing behavior that might start to affect retention? That's my first question. And then secondly, and regarding Denmark, I think you spent quite a few years trying to improve profitability by a number of measures including price increases. Does the investigation by the potential investigation by the Danish authorities actually affect what you're planning in terms of price increases? Thank you.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Correct, right, yeah, thank you very much.

Question: Hskon Astrup - DNB Markets - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions truthfully as well. The first one, on regulation, and I appreciate your comment on the report from the Danish Competition Authority. Can you update us on your dialogue with the Norwegian regulator on the topic of ethical pricing and price walking? Do you see any risk of meaningful changes to the practices in Norway? Just a quick, the Second question on your application that you sent to the FSA regarding approval of your internal model of correlation between underwriting risk and market risk according to your internal model, how much is the is the uplift there compared to the standard model in terms of solvency [percentage] points. Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 29, 2025 / 9:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Hskon Astrup - DNB Markets - Analyst : Perfect, thank you for your answer.

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, on this large loss, could you shed some more light into a structural fire? Is it a lot of fires, or could you shed some more in details for what has happened or if it's a structural one, is it something you sort of think it randomly or should you face and your risk appetite in that property market would be interesting to hear about. Then secondly, the M&A interest has been, of course, large in Denmark. What kind of opportunities do you see and for Sweden with some jump in the revenue growth there, would you have some more appetite in Sweden for smaller players? Thank you.

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Do you think it will be less easy to buy patrols in Denmark or smaller companies because of the authorities report out? Do you think they will be even more sort of strict when it comes to market shares and consolidation among the top players?

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Okay, thank you.

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : Yes, good morning. So two questions from me as well. So let me look across all your segments in all the regions. Are there any segments where you see less acceptance for your price increases, or is it always so that it's a win-win that The weak clients who want to get rid of is not accepted in price X.

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : Okay, thank you. And the second question from me as well, if you look at the underlying claims frequency in private Norway, it decreased by 2.3% points year over year, while that was in Norway, while in Denmark it jumped 4.7%. year on year. So it is a simple way to explain this, huge division in the underlying picture.

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : Okay, thank you for that.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Good morning. Thank you. My one question, if I had to choose, would be the, you talked about claim saving program. Which you said is not quantified but it's somewhat of a similar rising or strong trajectory as at the NOK812 million for full year 24 and I'm just curious, I mean that this did have a big impact when it does look like a number for a quarter as well you said it was mostly toed last year. How should we be thinking? I mean, is that, if it is running at a similar run rate, then is some of that going into investment, so that's why the effect is not very prominent, or are you trying to say that there was some effect, but we haven't quantified that. I mean, it's curious that it's quite a big effort and a big program and a big number. So how should we think about that one? And I do have a follow up on call we'll see, but maybe we stick to one for now and then follow up in later call. Thank you.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Okay, thank you, Jostein.

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Hi, thank you. Good morning. Just go back to the pilot Norway, development, since you are accelerating repricing further in the quarter a bit for property and not a bit should be interpret that if you have seen anything in the quarter that has surprised you way. Or is it inflation frequency or something else that makes you think that this is needed or is it just to have some more margin to your profitability targets or I expect that your person to achieve the similar quarter on quarter. Thank you.

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Okay, thank you, but just since, even if you're just for the run of games last quarter in private Norway, claims are, more than at least we expected, so bit of a silly question, but which of these quarters Q4 last year or Q1 this year do you think is the best underlying reflection of the possibility in your [arepo] for in the quarter.

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Also, the underlying profitability in your private Norway, portfolio at the moment. Which of the quarters Q4, Q1, do you think this reflects what you consider the underlying profitability at the moment for a for a winter quarter? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 29, 2025 / 9:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Yeah, thank you very much, that was good.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Hello, thank you for taking my follow up question. I've got to ask two questions. I think the first one is just on Mutter. You've maintained your expectation on severity inflation. Can you tell us what you're expecting on frequency? I mean, I know you said that in Q1 it was just over 1 point year on year, but what is your expectation for the rest of the year? And then secondly, on your asset, your investment makes. I mean, in your opening comments, you talked about increased political uncertainty, market volatility, etc. In light of that, are you planning to derisk your portfolio? Thank you.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : All right, thank you very much.

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Yes, just can I follow up on your financial question. Could you shed some more light into where you are currently in this quarter so far? Is it a loss? Is a gain? Is it mixed, or is it flat from end Q1? And secondly, just could you please explain what premiums in force is more technical. Is it earned premiums? Is it gross rate premiums or is it the portfolio premiums which you have in at the current levels. Thank you.

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Okay, so the old gross written premium thinking or something like that, is that how we should think about it?

Question: Jan Erik Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : That's fine. Okay, yeah okay, still confused on a high level. Thank You.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Oh yeah, Molly, thanks for the opportunity. Just the question on the So see, the FSA discussions on, there are other topics as well, not just this correlation, I understand, and you mentioned [1.6 billion] lower SCR on all the topics. Could you, are you in a position to roughly indicate how much of that is from the ongoing. This correlation topic please. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 29, 2025 / 9:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Okay, thank you very much.