Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation (Q&A for Sell-side Analysts) - London Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: David Barma - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Thanks for taking my question. Firstly, I wanted to ask about the performance in private lines in Norway, please. Could you come back on the quarterly deterioration in the underlying loss ratio in that segment? Is there anything particular in there or is it just the typical Q1 seasonality that we're seeing? And also, if you can touch on the prior year releases in the period, which were particularly low. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 30, 2025 / 7:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: David Barma - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Yeah, I'm just thinking, compared to the last few quarters, is it just a bit of weather frequency in Q1 that's driving the uptick, not compared to Q1 last year, but compared to the rest of '24?

Question: David Barma - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Alright, thank you. Can I ask a second question, please, on Denmark? And are there any comments that you could share on the competition authority inquiry into different pricing practices for existing and new customers and on indexation?

Question: David Barma - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 30, 2025 / 7:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea - Analyst : Thank you for taking my question. Just on Private Norway because earned premiums are up 10%-plus year on year. And one year ago, you guided on just like roughly 10% growth in '24. And now it seems like you basically have doubled this, not fully, but it seems you almost doubled what you say you're doing. So does that mean that on the flat retention ratios that the Private premiums in Norway next year might approach almost a 20% growth rate?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea - Analyst : Yeah, and this will take a typical cycle here that when you start in April now, you lift it a little bit, that will go through -- like obviously, you can change based on stuff that's happening, but basically, that will then go through. It takes 12 to 18 months to get it through the P&L?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea - Analyst : Yeah. And also in Denmark, because of the trailing 12-month underwriting result in Denmark now, you need to lift that 50% to reach your target in '26 of over DKK750 million. Is it possible to reach that target now in Denmark, like in one year?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea - Analyst : Okay. So we shouldn't see -- if you lift up a little bit, that this bit of bad momentum in Denmark, it won't interfere with your group's combined ratio target, do you think?

Question: Ulrik Znrcher - Nordea - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Bank - Analyst : Thanks for taking my question. So I just wanted to go back to an earlier question on the development in the underlying frequency loss ratio in Norway, which is sort of on a reported basis, down 5% year on year, which is good to see. But then in Q4, i.e., last quarter, it was down 10% year on year. So I'm trying to understand how we should think about that delta? Specifically, then, how much of the Q4 decline was driven by the synergy realization that you spoke about earlier in the quarter where you had an update? And if you say that the frequencies are stable in Q1, should we then interpret it as severity being higher than in Q4?

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Bank - Analyst : And maybe just on the synergies where you announced sort of NOK800 million in claims synergies taken out during the second half of last year. Could you quantify the effect of that? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 30, 2025 / 7:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Bank - Analyst : Thank you very much.

Question: Hans Rettedal Christiansen - Danske Bank - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : So I'll start with two questions, please. The first one is just on your pricing in Norway across motor and property. I mean, your retention has been very stable despite quite high price increases. And then you're still planning to actually step it up this year? Are you seeing any changes in competitor pricing behavior that might start to affect retention? That's my first question. And then secondly, regarding Denmark, I think you spent quite a few years trying to improve profitability by a number of measures, including price increases. Does the potential investigation by the Danish authorities actually affect what you are planning in terms of price increases?

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Alright, Geir. Thank you very much.

Question: Hskon Astrup - DNB Markets - Analyst : Thanks for taking the questions. Two for me as well. The first one is on regulation. I appreciate your comment on the report from the Danish Competition Authority. Can you update us on your dialogue with the Norwegian regulator on the topic of ethical pricing and price walking? Do you see any risk of meaningful changes to the practices in Norway? And just a quick second question on your (inaudible) application that you sent to the FSA regarding approval of your internal model of correlation between underwriting risk and market risk, according to your internal model, how much is the uplift there compared to the standard model in terms of solvency percentage points?

Question: Hskon Astrup - DNB Markets - Analyst : Perfect. Thank you for your answers.

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, on this large loss, could you shed some more light into this was a structural fire? Are there a lot of fires? Or could you shed some more details on what has happened? Or if it's a structural one? Is it something you sort of think is random? And your risk appetite in that property market would be interesting to hear about. Then secondly, the M&A interest has been, of course, large in Denmark. What kind of opportunities do you see? And for Sweden, with some jump in the revenue growth there, would you have some more appetite in Sweden for smaller players?

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Do you think it will be less easy to buy portfolios in Denmark or smaller companies because of the authorities' report out? Do you think they will be evenly more sort of strict when it comes to market shares and consolidation among the top players?

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : So two questions from me as well. So when we look across all your segments in all your regions, are there any segments where you see less acceptance for your price increases? Or is it all so that it's a win-win that the weak clients you want to get rid of is not accepting of price hikes?

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : Okay. Thank you. And just a second question from me as well. If you look at the underlying claims frequency in Private Norway, it decreased by 2.3 percentage points year over year, while that was in Norway. While in Denmark, it jumped 4.7% year on year. So is it a simple way to explain this huge deviation in the underlying picture?

Question: Thomas Svendsen - SEB - Analyst : Okay. Thank you for that. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 30, 2025 / 7:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : My one question, if I had to choose, would be, you talked about the claim saving program, which you said is not quantified, but it's somewhat of a similar rising or strong trajectory as at the NOK812 million for full year '24. And I'm just curious, I mean, this did have a big impact when you just look like a number for a quarter as well. You said it was mostly 2H last year. How should we be thinking, I mean, is that if it is running at a similar run rate, then is some of that going into investments? So that's why the effect is not very prominent or are you trying to say that there was some effect but we haven't quantified that? I mean, just curious that it's quite a big effort and a big program and a big number. So how should we think about that one? And I do have a follow up on solvency, but maybe we stick to one for now and then follow up in the later call.

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Just going back to the Private Norway development. Since you are accelerating repricing further in the quarter, a bit for property and (inaudible), should we interpret that as if you have seen anything in the quarter that has surprised you in any way? Or is it inflation frequency or something else that makes you think that this is needed? Or is it just to have some more margin to your profitability targets since I expect that your repricing to achieve a similar profitability quarter on quarter? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. APRIL 30, 2025 / 7:00AM, GJFG.OL - Q1 2025 Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Presentation (Q&A for

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Okay. Thank you. But just since even if you adjust for the runoff gains last quarter in Private Norway, claims are up a bit more than at least we expected. Bit of a (inaudible) question, but which of these quarters, Q4 last year or Q1 this year, do you think is the best underlying reflection of the profitability in your portfolio for winter quarter?

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : No. So the underlying profitability in your private Norway portfolio at the moment. Which of the quarters, Q4 or Q1, do you think best reflects what you consider the underlying profitability at the moment for a winter quarter?

Question: Herman Zahl - Pareto Securities - Analyst : Thank you very much.

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Thank you for taking my follow-up question, I've got two questions. I think the first one is just on the motor. You've maintained your expectation on severity inflation. Can you tell us what you're expecting on frequency? I mean, I know you said that in Q1, it was just over 1 point year on year, but what is your expectation for the rest of the year? And then secondly, on your asset, your investment mix. I mean, in your opening comments, you talked about increased political uncertainty, market volatility, et cetera. In light of that, are you planning to derisk your portfolio?

Question: Youdish Chicooree - Autonomous Research - Analyst : Alright, thank you very much.

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Just kind of follow up on your financial question. Could you shed some more light on where you are currently in this quarter so far? Is it a loss? Is it again? Is it mixed? Or is it flat from the end of Q1? And secondly, could you please explain what premiums are in force? Is this more technical? Are they earned premiums? Is it gross written premiums? Or is it the portfolio premiums which you have at the current levels?

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : So the old gross written premium thinking, or something like that. Is that how we should think about it?

Question: Jan Gjerland - ABG Sundal Collier - Analyst : Okay, so, [confused] on the high level. Thank you.

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Just a question on the solvency, the FSA discussions there are other topics as well, not just this correlation, I understand. And you mentioned NOK1.6 billion lower SCR on all the topics. Are you in a position to roughly indicate how much of that is from the ongoing -- this correlation topic?

Question: Vinit Malhotra - Mediobanca - Analyst : Okay. Thank you.