The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.
(Questions from industry analysts are provided in full, but answers are omitted - download the transcript to see the full question-and-answer session)
Question: Antonio Reale - BofA Global Research (UK) - Analyst
: It's Antonio from Bank of America. I have two questions, please. One on NII and one on use of capital. On the first one, you had something like
EUR14 billion increase in current accounts in one single quarter in Q4, which is a big deal and probably speaks to your deposit franchise in the
country. Now this inevitably comes with a nice interest carry to your NII, which you're probably carrying over to 2025.
Now I would assume that the majority of this increase in current accounts probably took place late in the quarter and will sustain your NII resilience
guidance in 2025. Is that correct? And can you help us understand a EUR15 billion NII this year is within reach. That's my first question.
My second question is about use of capital, and I realize I've asked you this before. And my question is what do you intend to do with the excess
capital because you keep accumulating your organic cash generation this year grew more than what you've ended up distributing. And this is
despite -- at least we see no real signs of loan growth in sight, you'll have DTAs more than compensating for Basel.
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FEBRUARY 04, 2025 / 2:00PM, ISP.MI - Full Year 2024 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Earnings Call
So if you're not paying 100% of your organic capital generation, my question is why you decided to build capital on an already high capital buffer?
What you plan to do with the success? You've talked about no need for M&A. But just purely from a financial standpoint, given what your stock is
trading, would M&A be a better way to deploy this capital? Question mark. Thank you.
Question: Ignacio Ulargui Lopez - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst
: This is Ignacio from BNP Paribas. I just have two questions. One on fee income. How should we think about the growth in commissions and insurance
into 2025 after the excellent performance of 2024? And the second one, if you could help us a bit to understand on the cost progression that we
will have in 2025, how should we think about the cost line after the performance of 2024 and the strong variable comp? So do we expect something
similar in '25 or that should be more contained in the year? Thank you.
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FEBRUARY 04, 2025 / 2:00PM, ISP.MI - Full Year 2024 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Earnings Call
Question: Ignacio Cerezo - UBS Limited - Analyst
: I have one on lending growth. We've seen in the last couple of quarters, including Q4, some tentative signs actually of improvements. I think the
number basically in Q4, slightly higher than Q3 for first in several quarters actually. So you can elaborate a little bit on how hopeful you are actually
of a more significant volume acceleration in '25. And where is that potential growth actually coming from?
And then the second question, and sorry to ask this, actually, I just wanted to check if your view around not participating on Italian M&A has changed
following recent developments. Thank you.
Question: Pamela Zuluaga - Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc - Analyst
: I was wondering if you could give us some color specifically around the AUM margins. Are they still showing some pressure from the product mix?
Have they begun recovering? How do you think they will continue evolving?
Also, another question on NII. You said you're expecting volumes to help. You just said 0% to 5% of loans. Which segment are you expected to
grow more? And is there any downside risk to loan demand from the phasing out of the super bonus effect?
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If I may, one follow-up, you said -- I know you said no acquisitions, no M&A, absolutely, but thinking more banking M&A. Would you be interested
in doing any small bolt-on acquisitions within the asset management or insurance businesses that does not entail a lot of execution risk and help
the narrative around fee generation? Thank you very much.
Question: Andrea Filtri - Mediobanca Securities - Analyst
: The first question is more semantics, how to interpret the well above EUR9 billion guidance. The question is, if you meant above EUR9.5 billion,
would you have said above EUR9.5 billion or it's included in the well above EUR9 billion?
And the second is on DTAs. I wasn't able to find the amount of off-balance sheet DTAs remaining. And why have you reduced the CET1 benefits
from DTA absorption from 120 to 100 basis points? Thank you.
Question: Andrea Lisi - Equita SIM S.p.A. - Analyst
: The first one is regarding your guidance, and in particular, regarding the level of rates that is assumed in the guidance. And to which level you are
confident you can still remain with well above EUR9 billion for 2025 and the following years. Then I want to ask you if you have a further room also
to optimize the risk-weighted asset.
And the third one is a more regulatory question. Regarding the application of Basel 4, we have had about some doubts, especially in other countries
regarding the possibility of applying them the better framework, so as someone speaking about suspension. So what's your view on that? And
what do you think will be the final outcome in this regard? Thank you.
Question: Britta Schmidt - Bernstein Autonomous LLP - Analyst
: The first one is to pick up on the tax issue. What sort of tax rate do you expect for 2025? And has there been any change in the guidance?
Secondly, on the NII versus trading debate, can you give us any insight on how you assume the sum of the two to move year on year, allowing for
some changes between the mix? Yeah, those are my two follow-ups. Thank you.
Question: Britta Schmidt - Bernstein Autonomous LLP - Analyst
: On net interest income, I think you explained that the absolute level will, to some extent, depend on how your trading income develops. And I
think the two elements here, you flagged the CIB business in terms of realizing gains. But I guess there's also an element of how the customer
behavior with regards to maturing certificates develop, if these move back to deposits or not, for example. So I'm just trying to get an idea as to
whether we can look at the sum of net interest income and trading together to see how that will develop in '25 versus '24.
Question: Giovanni Razzoli - Deutsche Bank A.G. (Italy) - Analyst
: Two questions on my side. The first one is on the trading performance. What shall we expect for next year in terms of contribution from this line
item? Because if they see the last couple of years, clearly, the contribution was relatively low when compared to the previous years. Clearly, you've
guided that most of this will also depend on the risk appetite, the contribution of NII, and the risk appetite of your trading and debt. But what could
be a reasonable indication for 2025?
And the last question is on M&A. You've been extremely clear on the non-intention on outright M&A. I was wondering whether this very clear
answer can also apply to acquisition of minority stakes, which may complement your business mix. Thank you.
Question: Marco Nicolai - Jefferies International Ltd. (Brokerage) - Analyst
: So one is on asset quality. This quarter, there was some pickup in the flows of NPLs. So if you look at the 4Q this year against 4Q last year, it was like
10% was slightly more flows. So I wanted to ask you what you expect in terms of NPL flows next year. And if you can give us a little bit of color
around these inflows.
And then a second question on NII, 2026. So I'm not asking you any hard guidance. But let's say, directionally in 2026 compared to '25, would you
expect NII at this point to go up or given potentially some pickup in loan growth or not? Thank you.
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FEBRUARY 04, 2025 / 2:00PM, ISP.MI - Full Year 2024 Intesa Sanpaolo SpA Earnings Call
Question: Hugo Cruz - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Limited - Analyst
: My question is around interest rate sensitivity. Usually, most banks have talked about parallel shift in rates, but it's more likely that you will see this
short-term going down in the middle and long end of the curve staying where they are. I was wondering if you -- what do you think that means
for your NII sensitivity? And if you could give any guidance about the impact of that difference. Thank you.
Question: Chris Hallam - Goldman Sachs International - Analyst
: Just two simple questions left from me. First, could you tell us what you embed in your NII guidance for deposit growth in 2025? And maybe I
misheard it earlier, but I think you said you expect NII up in 2026. So just what's assumed in there, maybe as well for deposit growth?
And then secondly, on slide 9, when you say additional distribution for 2025 will be quantified with the full-year results approval, I guess that's an
earlier-than-usual confirmation regarding future distribution. Is there any reason why your approach to quantifying that buyback in '26 may be
different from what we've seen over the past two years?
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