Uzbekistan

This report does not constitute a rating action. Overview Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Uzbekistan is pursuing wide-spread economic reforms to expand the productive capacity of the economy. The government?s fiscal position and economy?s external position are supported by the government?s external assets and the central bank?s gold reserves. --We expect the economy to expand by 6.5% in 2021 and for real growth to average 5.5% a year over 2022-2024, supported by investment and reform programs. --The government?s net debt burden will remain moderate despite ongoing fiscal deficits, with the expected change in net debt averaging 5% of GDP through 2024. --GDP per capita remains low, at $1,900 in 2021, and institutional capacity, although nascent, is improving

...Uzbekistan will continue with wide-ranging economic reforms. Major economic reforms underway include the modernization of equipment and operations--and improving corporate governance--at state-owned enterprises (SOEs), a privatization program to reduce the role of the state in the economy, agricultural and nonagricultural land privatization, and deepening domestic capital markets. In addition, the government is pursuing reforms to increase institutional capacity. It is working on a national anti-corruption strategy, a debt law to improve fiscal management, and a strategy to improve public administration and reduce bureaucratic barriers. External debt has increased rapidly since 2018 and although we expect it to continue rising, the pace should decelerate. External debt is on a path to exceed liquid public and financial sector external assets. The economy's external debt increased by 37% in 2020, led by the public and banking sectors. Elevated gold prices help support the economy's external...

Full Report