Research Update: Uzbekistan 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable

We expect that Uzbekistan's net general government and external debt levels will rise faster than our previous forecasts, fueled by an acceleration in energy and infrastructure projects. In our view, a persistent and unchecked increase in public sector and external leverage could present risks, but we expect the country's fiscal and current account deficits to moderate after peaking in 2023. At about 30% of GDP, Uzbekistan's net general debt remains moderate in a global context, while robust investment will support economic growth, in our view. We therefore affirmed our 'BB-/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uzbekistan. The outlook is stable. On May 31, 2024, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and local currency

...- We expect that Uzbekistan's net general government and external debt levels will rise faster than our previous forecasts, fueled by an acceleration in energy and infrastructure projects. - In our view, a persistent and unchecked increase in public sector and external leverage could present risks, but we expect the country's fiscal and current account deficits to moderate after peaking in 2023. - At about 30% of GDP, Uzbekistan's net general debt remains moderate in a global context, while robust investment will support economic growth, in our view. - We therefore affirmed our '##-/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uzbekistan. The outlook is stable....

Research Update