Research Update: Uzbekistan 'BB-/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable

S&P Global Ratings forecasts that economic growth in Uzbekistan will remain strong at an average of 5.6% over 2024-2027, bolstered by public investment and private consumption. In our view, a persistent and unchecked increase in public sector and external leverage could present risks, but we expect the country's fiscal and current account deficits to narrow after peaking in 2023. At an estimated 39% of GDP in 2024, Uzbekistan's gross general debt stock remains moderate in a global context--most of that debt is to official creditors and on concessional terms. We therefore affirmed our 'BB-/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uzbekistan. The outlook is stable. On Nov. 29, 2024, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term

...- S&P Global Ratings forecasts that economic growth in Uzbekistan will remain strong at an average of 5.6% over 2024-2027, bolstered by public investment and private consumption. - In our view, a persistent and unchecked increase in public sector and external leverage could present risks, but we expect the country's fiscal and current account deficits to narrow after peaking in 2023. - At an estimated 39% of GDP in 2024, Uzbekistan's gross general debt stock remains moderate in a global context--most of that debt is to official creditors and on concessional terms. - We therefore affirmed our '##-/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uzbekistan. The outlook is stable....

Research Update