This report does not constitute a rating action. We expect CSX’s intermodal expansion to drive revenue growth even as broader freight recovery remains gradual. CSX’s revenue increased approximately 8% in the first nine months of 2026, driven by 4.5% volume growth and higher fuel surcharge revenue. Revenue per carload (excluding fuel) was flat, though a larger mix of intermodal masked core pricing gains. Volume growth was primarily supported by a 7% increase in intermodal, benefiting from tighter trucking capacity, customer wins, and new services. For 2026, we forecast revenue growth of 8%-9%, half of which comes from higher fuel surcharges and about 3%-4% from an increase in carloads. We assume low-single-digit percent carload growth across its coal and merchandise segments
