...April 25, 2025 This report does not constitute a rating action. U.S. trade policy introduces uncertainty to CSX Corp.'s 2025 revenue prospects. We forecast CSX's revenue will decline 2%-3% (1%-2% without fuel surcharges) though results will vary across segments. Uncertain trade policies and secondary effects on inflation will likely have an impact on consumer spending and industrial production. We anticipate the tariffs with China will decrease import and export volumes, though CSX is less exposed than its western peers. With pricing still weak from excess trucking capacity, we expect intermodal revenue to decline 2%. Regarding merchandise revenue, we don't expect tariffs will spur U.S. production in 2025-- domestic manufacturing is likely waiting for more certainty on the global tariff landscape before committing to new strategies. However, the diversification across this segment may lead to some opportunities that can be addressed with existing domestic capacity (i.e., steel), though...
