...November 14, 2025 This report does not constitute a rating action. We expect CSX Corp.'s 2025 carloads to be relatively flat. However, we forecast a 3% revenue decline, primarily from weaker coal performance. While we only anticipate coal carloads to be down 1%-2%, we expect coal revenue to decrease about 14%-15%. The main headwinds are lower benchmark pricing, declines in coal exports, and lower steel production. However increased utility coal usage is mitigating this because natural gas prices remain high. CSX's merchandise segment remains mixed, with trade policy uncertainty continuing to affect its customers, though the broad end-market diversification is providing relative stability. We forecast merchandise revenue to decline roughly 1%-2%, with slight declines in carloads offset by gains in revenue per carload. Weak trucking rates persist and will likely lead to lower intermodal revenue per carload in 2025. However, we expect intermodal carload growth of around 2%, due in part to...
