Tear Sheet: Archer Daniels Midland Co.

We expect the Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) to sustain its good operating performance in 2023 despite facing a difficult comparison to last year?s very strong earnings. ADM?s EBITDA grew 25% year-over-year in fiscal 2022, with operating profit growth across all business segments. Although we expect a modest normalization in EBITDA this year, the outlook for the company?s core business segments remains favorable. We are projecting 2%-4% year-over-year EBITDA growth, albeit with some downside risk. The company?s Agriculture Services and Oilseeds segment should benefit from favorable U.S. crush margins driven by tight industry capacity and strong global demand, which China?s economic reopening would further bolster. High renewable diesel and biofuel demand and tight industry supplies will support good, refined products,

...We expect the Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) to sustain its good operating performance in 2023 despite facing a difficult comparison to last year's very strong earnings. ADM's EBITDA grew 25% year-over-year in fiscal 2022, with operating profit growth across all business segments. Although we expect a modest normalization in EBITDA this year, the outlook for the company's core business segments remains favorable. We are projecting 2%-4% year-over-year EBITDA growth, albeit with some downside risk. The company's Agriculture Services and Oilseeds segment should benefit from favorable U.S. crush margins driven by tight industry capacity and strong global demand, which China's economic reopening would further bolster. High renewable diesel and biofuel demand and tight industry supplies will support good, refined products, origination, and merchandising margins. Carbohydrate solutions should benefit from favorable pricing but will likely face still low ethanol margins. Nutrition will also...

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