...October 27, 2025 This report does not constitute a rating action. NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Oct. 27, 2025--S&P Global Ratings today said that supply chain disruptions and elevated warranty spending will keep Ford Motor Co.'s execution risk elevated, even as tariff-related costs stabilize (a net $1 billion headwind for 2025 compared to $2 billion assumed earlier) and cost discipline improves. The Novelis Oswego outage creates a sizable fourth-quarter supply chain disruption including a $1.5 billion-$2 billion decrease to S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBIT and a $2 billion-$3 billion free cash flow (FCF) headwind in the fourth quarter. However, Ford reiterated its expectations for $1 billion in net industrial cost improvement in 2025 (excluding tariffs) and signaled another $1 billion in 2026, supported by material, freight/duty, and warranty efficiencies. As a result, we expect 2025 EBITDA margins will be below 4% (compared to our previous expectation of 4.5%-5%), improving to 6.5%-7.5%...
