Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior S.N.C.

We'll monitor the new federal administration's strategy and its impact on the bank's business expansion, risk appetite, and internal capital generation. If we see a significant deviation from our base-case scenario that could drag the RAC ratio consistently below 7%--our threshold for the adequate category--we would reassess our view of capital and earnings. This could lead to a downward revision of the stand-alone credit profile (SACP), although government support would keep the ratings unchanged. We don't expect the bank's funding structure to notably change in the next 24 months. We also consider that Bancomext will maintain robust liquidity, with a portfolio primarily consisting of highly liquid federal government securities. The stable outlook on Bancomext for the next two years reflects

...We expect Bancomext to play a crucial role in enhancing Mexican foreign trade. We expect the bank to continue supporting exporting companies to add value to supply chains and increase productivity in key sectors such as industrial warehouses, automotive, transportation, and tourism. We forecast an 18% average growth in its loan portfolio for 2024-2025, reversing 2023's nearly flat growth of 0.4%. We expect export sector activity, nearshoring, and federal infrastructure projects to drive this growth. However, we will monitor closely the bank's risk appetite, loan book expansion, and internal capital generation, considering potential strategy adjustments following the government transition in Mexico....

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