Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior S.N.C.

On the other hand, if credit losses surpass our expectations and/or government fees are higher than we expect (and not compensated by capital injections from the government), our projected RAC ratio might drop below 7%, which would lead us to view the bank's capital and earnings as weaker. Consequently, we expect asset quality indicators to stabilize, with nonperforming assets (NPAs) of about 3.8% in 2023, with a gradual recovery in 2024 to 3.4%. We'll continue to monitor the bank's asset quality for any notable deviations from our base-case scenario in the next six to 12 months, which could change our view of the bank's risk position. The stable outlook on Bancomext for the next two years reflects the outlook on

...In our view, Bancomext remains a key financial arm for the government to develop Mexico's foreign trade sector. We expect Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior S.N.C. (Bancomext) to remain a strategic vehicle for the government in financing Mexican export companies and their suppliers, along with foreign currency generators that contribute to jobs and economic development in the country. As a result, we believe there is an almost certain likelihood of government support, if needed, given the bank's critical role and integral link with the government. Therefore, our ratings on the bank mirror those on the sovereign....

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