Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior S.N.C.

The negative outlook on the global scale ratings on Bancomext stems from our negative outlook on Mexico (foreign currency: BBB/Negative/A-2, local currency: BBB+/Negative/A-2). If we downgrade the sovereign in the coming 12 months, we would take the same action on the bank. Thus, the ratings on the bank will continue to move in tandem with those on the sovereign, reflecting its status as a government-related entity (GRE) to the Mexican government. If we revise the outlook on Mexico to stable from negative in the next 12 months, we would revise our outlook on Bancomext back to stable. Our bank criteria use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment's (BICRA) economic and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor, the starting

...The bank will continue to be a relevant player in financing international trade in Mexico. Bancomext has a critical role to the government as the state's financial vehicle to promote and develop foreign trade in Mexico through local companies and financial institutions. The bank will continue to operate by granting competitive and long-term financing with the aim of improving foreign trade companies' productivity and competitiveness. In this context, the entity remains the second largest development bank in the country in terms of total loans, including guarantees. Capital injections will support the bank's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio for the next 24 months. In our opinion, Bancomext's modest loan portfolio, off-balance guarantees growth, and government capital injections will support its capital in the next 24 months. This will be reflected in a projected RAC ratio of 7.8%, on average, for the next two years. We expect asset quality deterioration in 2021-2022, but it should remain...

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