Moody's affirms Colombia's Baa2 ratings; maintains stable outlook

Government of Colombia:Economy stumbled into 2024, complicating compliance with fiscal rule target - Issuer Comment – 2024/03/01 – US$ 200.00 – ...Esta publicaci=n no anuncia una acci=n de calificaci=n crediticia. Para cualquier calificaci=n crediticia a la que se hace referencia en esta publicaci=n, vea la pßgina del emisor/ transacci=n en https://ratings.moodys.com para consultar la informaci=n de la acci=n de calificaci=n crediticia mßs actualizada y el historial de calificaci=n....

Government of Colombia: Economy stumbled into 2024, complicating compliance with fiscal rule target - Issuer Comment – 2024/02/29 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 15 February, Colombia's (Baa2 stable) statistical department reported that GDP increased 0.6% last year, below our estimate of 1.2%. Even though we expected economic activity to decelerate, a sharper-than-anticipated drop coupled with weak economic growth prospects in 2024 will complicate fiscal management. The authorities will be hard pressed to comply with the deficit limit set by the fiscal rule as government estimates project the fiscal deficit will widen to more than 5% of GDP. More importantly, if a lax fiscal stance persists beyond 2024, Colombia's credit profile would face downward pressure. After a strong post-pandemic economic recovery in 2021-22 (see Exhibit 1), we expected annual GDP growth would drop below 2% in 2023-24. Our view was that the central bank's restrictive monetary policy -- i.e., high interest rates -- would slow the economy and inflation, and help reduce the current account deficit. However, domestic demand was weaker than we anticipated because of declining...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2024/02/01 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence and a rigid expenditure structure. The economy decelerated markedly in 2023 and will recover gradually in 2024. Inflationary pressures remain relatively high compared with regional peers, and funding conditions for the government present a challenge to debt affordability. Compliance with the fiscal rule will be key to support the stability of debt metrics....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Annual credit analysis - Issuer In-Depth – 2023/07/10 – US$ 750.00 – ...The credit profile of Colombia balances a medium-sized and resilient economy, a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow revenue base and an inflexible expenditure structure. Following a pandemic-induced deterioration, fiscal strength is gradually recovering, which keeps Colombia's overall credit profile aligned with that of its Baa2-rated peers. Colombia's favorable debt structure mitigates the risks stemming from a higher government debt burden. Additionally, the institutional framework operates as a system of checks and balances, supporting the quality of the country's institutions and governance. In particular, this framework effectively prevents changes in economic policy that would mark a break in Colombia's track record of prudent policymaking. However, the credit profile has become more susceptible to bouts of low investor confidence that can increase borrowing costs...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Update following rating affirmation, outlook unchanged - Credit Opinion – 2023/06/09 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics in 2022-24....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2023/03/29 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics in 2022-24....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Update following methodology update - Credit Opinion – 2022/12/07 – US$ 250.00 – ...[1] Current account receipts. [2] (Short-term external debt + currently maturing long-term external debt + total nonresident deposits over one year)/official foreign-exchange reserves. Source: Moody's Investors Service...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2022/10/12 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics in 2022-24....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Annual credit analysis - Issuer In-Depth – 2022/06/30 – US$ 750.00 – ...The credit profile of Colombia balances a moderately sized and resilient economy, a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow revenue base and an inflexible expenditure structure. Fiscal strength deteriorated in 2020 because of the pandemic shock, putting Colombia in a weaker position than several of its Baa-rated peers. Colombia's favorable debt structure is a credit strength, which mitigates the risks stemming from a higher government debt burden. However, in the absence of significant fiscal consolidation in the coming years, government debt metrics are unlikely to improve significantly over the medium term, resulting in a weaker fiscal profile than that of peers with Baa2 ratings. We expect that fiscal and economic dynamics will support debt stabilization over the coming years. A key assumption is the continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies by the next government,...

Government of Colombia: President-elect's ability to balance social demands and fiscal consolidation will determine sovereign credit trajectory - Issuer Comment – 2022/06/23 – US$ 200.00 – ...*Others includes the 2 indigenous group Senators and 1 seat reserved for the presidential candidate that is the second most voted, which in this case is Rodolfo Hernandez Sources: Registraduria Nacional del Estado Civil and Moody's Investors Service *Others includes Liga Gobernantes Anti-Corrupcion, Nuevo Liberalismo, Coalicion Mira, indigenous Representatives, Afro-descendent Representatives, Peace Representatives, among others Sources: Registraduria Nacional del Estado Civil and Moody's Investors Service...