Government of Colombia: President-elect's ability to balance social demands and fiscal consolidation will determine sovereign credit trajectory

Moody's affirms Colombia's Baa2 ratings; maintains stable outlook - Rating Action – 2023/06/08 – US$ 180.00 – ...MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2023/03/29 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics in 2022-24....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Update following methodology update - Credit Opinion – 2022/12/07 – US$ 250.00 – ...[1] Current account receipts. [2] (Short-term external debt + currently maturing long-term external debt + total nonresident deposits over one year)/official foreign-exchange reserves. Source: Moody's Investors Service...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2022/10/12 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics in 2022-24....

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Annual credit analysis - Issuer In-Depth – 2022/06/30 – US$ 750.00 – ...The credit profile of Colombia balances a moderately sized and resilient economy, a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow revenue base and an inflexible expenditure structure. Fiscal strength deteriorated in 2020 because of the pandemic shock, putting Colombia in a weaker position than several of its Baa-rated peers. Colombia's favorable debt structure is a credit strength, which mitigates the risks stemming from a higher government debt burden. However, in the absence of significant fiscal consolidation in the coming years, government debt metrics are unlikely to improve significantly over the medium term, resulting in a weaker fiscal profile than that of peers with Baa2 ratings. We expect that fiscal and economic dynamics will support debt stabilization over the coming years. A key assumption is the continuation of prudent macroeconomic policies by the next government,...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2022/04/08 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic and rising social tensions, we project stable debt metrics over the coming years....

Government of Colombia: Institutional checks will limit radical policy shifts after upcoming presidential election - Issuer Comment – 2022/03/16 – US$ 200.00 – ...Note: results as of 3.15.2022 with over 99% of the votes counted Sources: Registraduria Nacional del Estado Civil and Moody's Investors Service...

Government of Colombia: Preliminary 2021 data show accelerated fiscal consolidation and declining debt, a credit positive - Issuer Comment – 2022/02/09 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 4 February, Colombia's (Baa2 stable) Ministry of Finance published preliminary 2021 fiscal data showing a central government deficit...

Government of Colombia: FAQ on fiscal and economic outlook, and upcoming elections - Issuer In-Depth – 2021/11/11 – US$ 750.00 – ...In September, following a considerable pandemic-driven deterioration in government finances, Colombia (Baa2 stable) passed an important fiscal reform, demonstrating its institutional capacity to implement macroeconomic policies that increase the likelihood of debt stabilization by 2023 and form the basis of a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation process. + How does passage of the fiscal reform affect the sovereign credit profile? Approval of fiscal reform confirms our view of Colombia's institutional strength. Through a consensus-building process, the government succeeded in promoting policies that support an economic recovery from a severe shock. Although the reform did not address all of the structural challenges that affect government finances, the measures meaningfully increase the likelihood that debt metrics will stabilize by 2023 and form the basis of a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation process. + What is Moody's assessment of Colombia's fiscal strength compared with...

Government of Colombia Baa2 stable: Update following outlook change to stable from negative - Credit Opinion – 2021/10/06 – US$ 250.00 – ...Colombia's credit profile balances a history of predictable macroeconomic policies and a solid track record of servicing debt against relatively high commodity dependence, a comparatively narrow tax revenue base and a rigid expenditure structure. Despite the challenges presented by the pandemic and rising social tensions, the government approved fiscal measures that we project will support debt stabilization over the coming years, keeping Colombia's credit metrics in line with those of Baa2-rated peers....