Royal Bank of Canada at National Bank Financial Services Conference Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : The first question is, I guess, a very simple, stupid one, but how do you do your job in this situation when the rules are changing every day and the outlook can seem to be on a random path? Yeah, let's go with that.

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : So as far as the outlook which is maybe evolving more rapidly than we'd like -- I think it was during the Q4 call you had indicated you expect peak loan loss provisions to arise during Q4 of this year or back half of 2025, whatever. Is that -- is the timing of that more fluid now? Maybe it's 2026 because --

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : So the other timing question relates to the performing provision and potential releases. It seems kind of a far off notion at this point, but what kind of conditions do we need to see before the performing releases start to show up -- Royal or across the sector, you're going to have much faster growing company and lower unemployment basically?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : I guess from the build standpoint like going the other direction that we've seen banks generally adding, performing provisions like 2, 3, 4 basis points a quarter for the past, I don't know, two years or so. There's some exceptions quarter to quarter, of course. But could we see a chunkier build come in Q2 just given the uncertainty here?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Other than the pandemic being its -- different set of circumstances and today that type of comparison, did you actually on a standalone basis learn anything because that was the first big test of IFRS 9 where you know the severe volatility of provisionings was apparent? Was there any big takeaway from that such that now we're -- probably a little less volatility should be expected in the provisioning line?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Have you spent time thinking about the election outcome in Canada? Is there a different scenario for liberal government versus conservative government?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Well, I mean the liberals could be more in the -- like you mentioned, the government support programs, they seem to talk about that a bit more.

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Got it. Now HSBC Canada, let's talk about that for a minute, because there have been a few losses that have popped out of that portfolio. And I think Dave was the one I met -- or maybe you on the call said it was you know tariff-exposed sectors or maybe I'm getting that description wrong. But what -- let me ask a simple question, what's going on (multiple speakers) ?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : I just want to wrap up on the consumer side a bit more, I guess focused on the mortgage book, the old -- how much of your portfolio is repriced at the lower rates now or higher rates? The nature of that question changes over the past six to eight months, I guess. And what sort of behaviors have you been observing with some of these borrowers that were getting into five years and with a two handle on it a few years back and now mid-fours.

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Now if we focus more on the condo element of the mortgage book and then on the commercial side as well, it's topical again because of poor sales activity and speculation that they're investors that are underwater and a lot of stuff. What can you tell us about your condo book, both on the consumer and on the commercial side?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : So when did you make that shift to more concentrated -- ?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : Okay. All right. Through the cycle, got it. Last one, well, I guess from a risk management standpoint, are we at the point where -- you hear about banks doing this every now and then, sending out letters to their credit card customers saying, hey, we're cutting your limit from 15,000 to 10,000, and any regional or industry type approach that you're taking of that nature?

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : I only ask because my wife got the (multiple speakers)

Question: Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial (Research) - Analyst : She went for a WestJet card, and they said, wait and see. We need more information. Anyway, thanks again for coming up. Very great timing and a very educational discussion as always.