JPMorgan Chase & Co Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: John McDonald - Truist Securities - Analyst : Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for the initial outlook on the 2026 NII. Jeremy, I wanted to ask you about the retail deposit assumptions that were embedded in that. At Investor Day, you discussed an expectation for deposits to grow 3% year-over-year by the fourth quarter, and I think accelerating to 6% next year. It looks like they were flat this quarter, so I just wanted to see if you're still expecting those kind of previously expected growth rates of 3% and 6%.

Question: John McDonald - Truist Securities - Analyst : Got it. That's helpful. And maybe just sticking with that 2026 initial outlook, what are some of the other key assumptions in there, particularly around commercial deposits and maybe loan growth and rates? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 14, 2025 / 12:30PM, JPM.N - Q3 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co Earnings Call

Question: John McDonald - Truist Securities - Analyst : Got it. Thanks, Jeremy.

Question: Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : Hi, good morning. One follow-up on that is on the reserve build. I know that you mentioned largely due to card loan growth, but could you give us a sense as to how you're thinking about the reserve that you have against the commercial book, especially given what you just mentioned around the mix of the portfolio is different today than it was prior cycle. I'm thinking prior cycle means pre COVID, but let me know if it's a different timeframe that you're thinking about. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 14, 2025 / 12:30PM, JPM.N - Q3 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co Earnings Call

Question: Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : Okay, perfect. Thank you. And then just the follow up is on how you're thinking about your access capital utilization. I know yesterday you had the press release on leaning into industries that are critical for US security, et cetera. And maybe you could speak a little bit to that incremental $500 billion. Is it that you're talking about supporting growth of over the next 10 years relative to the potential for a dividend hike? I mean, you could do both obviously, but I did just want to understand the press release yesterday in that context, as well as the opportunity set for a dividend hike. Thanks.

Question: Betsy Graseck - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : Thank you.

Question: Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America - Analyst : Good morning. I guess maybe Jeremy, a broader question, like when we read the quote from Jamie in the press release, customers are resilient, but there's still massive amounts of uncertainty. I'm just wondering if based on what you see, both commercial versus consumer, are things getting better as we look into '26 or does it feel like we are at a tipping point where we could see a slump in unemployment over the coming months that then leads to concerns around the credit cycle? Just if there's a bias that you have on how things could play out, that would be helpful color.

Question: Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America - Analyst : Got it. Among shareholders, whether AI and AI-driven productivity gains mean something for the banks as we look out over the next two to three years. You all have obviously talked about this at the Investor Day. I'm just trying to contextualize when you talk about the expense growth outlook or just sort of preliminary indication for next year, how should bank shareholders think about AI-led productivity gains in terms of making a dent on the expense growth either next year or for the next few years?

Question: Ebrahim Poonawala - Bank of America - Analyst : Thank you.

Question: Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities LLC - Analyst : Hi, If I could get an answer to this from both you, Jeremy, and Jamie, the question really is how much of a risk is the lending to the NDFIs? Just -- I mean, because you guys are always outfront highlighting what could happen, whether it's cyber or as you point, labor market or inflation. And I feel like you haven't really highlighted this as a potential risk area. Maybe that's because you don't perceive it as such, but you have Tricolor, you have First Brands. One area of your biggest growth, I think, has been NDFIs over the last year. So I'm just trying to put this in some sort of context that as it relates to Tricolor, who bears the losses? Does end investors in the funds? Is it -- do you put skin in the game and have your own investments? Are you an underwriter? Where are you exposed? So I guess I'm asking JPMorgan specifically but then Jamie more generally for the industry. Is this something that's flashing yellow that you are spending more time on? How should we think about that? Thank you.

Question: Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities LLC - Analyst : And so just a short follow-up after Tricolor, again, this is a real tiny drop in the bucket for you guys but have you gone back and looked at your processes and done anything different?

Question: Mike Mayo - Wells Fargo Securities LLC - Analyst : Got it. Thank you.

Question: Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst : Hi Jeremy, I'm Jamie. Jeremy, obviously, you guys are in the residential mortgage lending market, big players granted home lending. When you look at the revenue relative to banking and wealth management, obviously, it's not that big. But I got a question for you. This administration seems to be -- when they come out with comments, they follow up on those comments with actions. And Secretary of the Treasury, Bessent has pointed out about a couple of months ago that he thinks there's a housing emergency in this country. And so the question for you guys is, what do you think they could do to lower the spread between mortgage rates and the corresponding treasury yield, assuming the treasury yields don't go down. But what do you think they can actively do to lower that spread to lower mortgage rates to get housing more active and refinancing activity, of course, would pick up with that.

Question: Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst : Very good. And as a follow-up, just speaking about regulators in general, there's obviously been a major change with this administration. Can you guys give us any color of what you're actually seeing on the ground. We're, what, nine months or so into this new administration with the new regulators? And then also any color on when you think Basel III end game may come out and what you're hearing in terms of how it will compare to what the original proposal was in July of '23. Thank you.

Question: Gerard Cassidy - RBC Capital Markets - Analyst : Thank you for the color. I appreciate it.

Question: Erika Najarian - UBS AG - Analyst : Yes, thank you. My first one is for you, Jeremy. Under the category no good deed goes unpunished. Just wanted to ask a quick question on the expense outlook for '26. You mentioned that $100 billion could be a little low and that you're in the middle of the planning cycle. That would imply

Question: Erika Najarian - UBS AG - Analyst : I'll make sure to send this transcript to my boss. But the second question is actually for you, Jamie. You have always had a differentiated way of thinking about risk and a two-part question for you. Number one, I feel like we don't even know what the right questions are to ask when it comes to NDFI exposure and risk, which is such a broad category. And so a two-part question here. Number one, what would be the questions you think investors should ask when assessing NDFI exposure as it relates to future credit risk? And second, should investors be concerned about the SSFA accounting for RWAs in certain structures where you could lower the RWAs to NDFI exposures from 100% to something much lower? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 14, 2025 / 12:30PM, JPM.N - Q3 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co Earnings Call

Question: Erika Najarian - UBS AG - Analyst : Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 14, 2025 / 12:30PM, JPM.N - Q3 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co Earnings Call

Question: Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities - Analyst : Hey, good morning. Maybe just on the investment banking environment. Obviously, things have gotten better. Just curious where you see the most strength in the pipeline. And as we get rate cuts coming, do you feel that we're starting to see more activity pick up or the potential for more activity to pick up among financial sponsors? Just curious your thoughts.

Question: Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities - Analyst : Yes. That's all fair. And then maybe just a follow-up on just capital relief and how you're adjusting or at least starting to think about adjusting to that RWA growth that's picking up. Is there other aspects, whether it's in the Markets business or other marginal return activities before that you see opportunities to lean into growth to use up capital because obviously, IRRs on buybacks today at these levels are not great.

Question: Jim Mitchell - Seaport Global Securities - Analyst : Okay, thanks for the color,

Question: Ken Usdin - Autonomous - Analyst : Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask a question about just overall loan yields. I noticed that they were up 3 basis points in the quarter. Obviously, rates hadn't been moving during the quarter and now that we're starting to head back down. Just wondering just what are the main drivers of still being able to actually see higher loan yields.

Question: Ken Usdin - Autonomous - Analyst : Okay. I'll follow up on that. And secondly, with the Sapphire refresh, just assume that we're starting to see some of the awards amortization show in the card fees line and in the card revenue rate. So I'm just wondering if you could kind of walk us through that now that, that card is coming on and you mentioned good additions there. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 14, 2025 / 12:30PM, JPM.N - Q3 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co Earnings Call Just what do we have to think about in terms of what leads the horse in terms of card revenue rate and eventual volume growth and related benefits.

Question: Ken Usdin - Autonomous - Analyst : Okay, got it. Thank you.

Question: Christopher McGratty - KBW - Analyst : Oh great, thanks for sneaking in. Related to the 15% long-term national retail deposit market share, does your pricing need to be materially different from recent history? Or said another way, do you need to price a little bit more competitive to get that 4 points of improvement over time?

Question: Christopher McGratty - KBW - Analyst : Great. Thank you for the call. I appreciate it.