The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.
(Questions from industry analysts are provided in full, but answers are omitted - download the transcript to see the full question-and-answer session)
Question: Dhaval Gada - DSP Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. - Analyst
: Yeah. Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. I had a couple of questions. The first one relates to asset quality. So last quarter, I think we commented
that generally we expect Stage 3 assets to improve in the second half of the year. If you look at slide 29 generally, the improvement is less and
we've seen some increases especially in the newer businesses. Could you talk a little bit around, is it in line with what you expect and things should
improve in the fourth quarter or, what's sort of gone in the new businesses? So that's the first part.
And the second question relates to, if you look at slide 67 and 68 which is on CSEL and SME generally, if you look at the ROA improvement, the PBT
rota improvement, we expected some bit of credit cost normalization as well. What should be the steady state of credit cost in both the businesses
in your view and where it should be in the current year and then in the medium term. Yeah, Thanks.
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah. So, first of all, I mentioned last time that the quarter two to quarter three, it will be flat actually. And we have tried our very best and we see
that a little bit beneficial in terms of NCL vehicle finance is actually now seen to the extent of 10 basis points. At the same time, the CSEL is actually
showing a little higher NCL. That is because of the partnership is actually showing higher NCL. And we mentioned in the last time also that we are
coming out of the partnership business slowly, we already come down to the 3 partners from 10 partners in the last two years time and likely to
go down further and we will come out completely from the next financial year.
And as we come out of the small ticket size loan where the in sales are high, you will see that the NCL of CSEL will start coming down. So, standalone
CSEL without partner is much lower. But if you add the NCL, it is actually higher.
And second is that even in the case of the partnership, hope we are getting FLDG in the income line. So overall NCL whatever you're seeing, it is
inflated by one person because that is added in the income line also. So your question is when the CSEL NCL will come down, it will come down
only when if you start doing lesser partnership and when we completely come out from the partnership, that's the CSEL and we are likely to do
that within the next one year time, you will see that the partnership will get run down because it's a small ticket, small tenor book.
And majorly, we will get run down and the balance will get run down in next two years time. When it comes to the SME, SME is basically a similar
to loan against property where the customer is basically having a collateral and then we have to go do SARFAESI and resolution of the cases takes,
nine months to one year.
So there are, SARFAESI which is lined up and once the SARFAESI start kicking in, then the NCL will start giving the reversal as we have seen in the
case of lab. So next financial year you will see the those reversal will start coming and you'll see our NCL in the case of SME will be instead of negative
will be positive and therefore the rota can go up. So this is what is the, feedback on SME and CSEL delicacy.
Is there anything we can missed out?
Question: Dhaval Gada - DSP Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. - Analyst
: Got it. Just last question growth, so, last time you mentioned that 25% growth expectation in the medium term. Does that sort of still hold true or
any thought that you have for next year or beyond in terms of growth expectation?
Unidentified Company Representative
So we are holding on it, the 25% growth, we are going to deliver that even next financial year.
Question: Dhaval Gala - Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC - Analyst
: Thank you for the opportunity. Very good set of numbers. Congratulations to the management team. So two questions first on net interest margins,
if you could let us know the current movement or repricing of the borrowings and how would we place be placed, assume the rate cycle is peak.
And if there is any cuts, how should one look at next year?
And the second question the asset quality front, if you could highlight generally the trend is that fourth quarter numbers looks to be far better
than the previous three quarters. And there is better collection efficiency across the vehicle or all the auto financing book. Should one expect
similarity in the current financial year and maybe what could be the guidance for credit cost next financial year.
Unidentified Company Representative
Firstly, on the borrowing cost, we are holding it at similar levels and we expect that if there are reductions coming through by the reaction, etcetera,
then that will go through. That will be a lag of quarter. And I think then it will come.
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Yeah. The quarter four will be better than the quarter three and it has been like that. But if you see that in general, the second half, normally from
quarter three onwards start doing better. And this year we said that this year scenario, slightly different things are not looking so good in terms of
all the metrics and all the macro. So therefore things will start improving slightly slow and therefore, we said that quarter three will be flat and the
improvement in quarter four as compared to quarter three if you take the last year was very, very good.
So though it will happen definitely quarter three to quarter four improvement, it will not be to the level of the last year and slowly, slowly brick to
the capacity utilization of the vehicle still improving. ITs are still improving. It has not come to the level of what it was last year. So it will take about
another three to four quarter to increase to the level of last year performance. So that is what is the thing.
So from here, things should improve as far as the vehicle finance portfolio consider, we have seen that and we have started actually delivering
slight reduction the NCL over the quarter and then quarter four will be definitely better than the quarter three. We have to see quarter one because
normally quarter one is a slightly a lean period and then obviously the next year will be better than the this financial.
Question: Dhaval Gala - Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC - Analyst
: Yeah, yeah, thank you. Thanks a lot and all the best sir.
Unidentified Company Representative
Thank you.
Question: Akshay Jain - Autonomous Research - Analyst
: Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions. One, your credit costs continue to remain in the postcode of around 155 basis points
to 160 basis points for the last three quarters while we see that, elevated credit cost in vehicle finance fees and deterioration in new businesses.
Can you please provide some more color on this? As you know, the stress in the vehicle finance is being seen across products, vehicles, geographies
or is it restricted to some certain specific segments?
And also you mentioned something on the new business side, but I guess you missed the SBPL. So if you can provide something on that also.
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah. So first of all, before coming to vehicle finance, I'll tell you that it is not only with the credit cost is basically coming from the new business.
It is also the reversal of the credit cost from the lab, which was coming, which is now started stopping and then they started getting into the
normalization of the credit cost. They were minus-20 basis points now they are plus 10 basis points. So that is also a swing happening because
they have also reached to the rock bottom level of Stage 2 and Stage 3 and reversal are now is not possible further.
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So one is that the credit cost is coming from that in nature also, they were also continuously reducing their NPA. They have come down to 1.2 level
and their NCL is at 0.3 level though the NCL are at same level, not gone up, but ideally in the affordable business, also, the NCLs are slightly higher
than that. So it is not only coming from the new businesses, it is also coming from lab NCL.
Now coming to the SBPL, SBPL is delivering 6%-plus ROA and their NCL is likely to be, 1.5% to 2% in steady state situation. So we are also, getting
NCL to the standard, because now that that book is getting settled down. Now coming to the vehicle finance, which part of the market is basically
not doing. We mentioned that last year, small commercial vehicle and light commercial vehicle for us. They are not doing well from quarter two
to of the last year, the last financial year itself, it started increasing the infant and NCL we have taken the conscious this year to reduce the market
share in the small commercial vehicle last year itself.
And now we are seeing that the early default and non start, started coming down from November onwards. So things are improving in the small
and light is concerned. In addition to that, we have also seen the used commercial vehicle and also tractor were not doing well, but all those two
products also now seeing that things are improving.
So in vehicle finance, we can say that the last two years of performing some product -- not performing is started performing better from quarter
three onwards, the improvements are slightly not visible as of now. We are able to see from the infant delegacy only from point of view. Therefore,
the Stage 3 is not visible. Stage 2 has come down in vehicle finance and Stage 3 is up by 10 basis points -- 9 basis points. So things are going to
improve in next three to four quarter as similar to what it used to be. But we have to wait for that.
Question: Akshay Jain - Autonomous Research - Analyst
: Got it sir. And if I may last technical question GNPA versus GS3. So your GNPA are up by 22 basis points in the quarter. And the 46 basis points in
this year. Are the drivers here are similar to what we can see in GS3. And what is the main difference between the GNPA and GS3? Because one is
a 2.91% another is 4%.
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah, when the market become very good, then all the GNPA customers who have actually come back from Stage 3 will become normalized. But
what is happening that the things are just started improving? So some people would have come back but it's still showing up GNPA because GNPA
is once you test the GNPA and it will come down to 30% to 60% or 60% currently, still the customer will be in GNPA. Wherein the Stage 3, once
customer is coming below 90 degree, it is coming out of the Stage 3. So during this kind of situation where things have started improving, there
is always gap in the State 3 and GNPA.
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Question: Raghav Ghar - Ambit Capital Private Limited - Analyst
: Sir, thank you for the opportunity and congrats on the results. Firstly, sorry I could not hear your commentary on [trust] utilization properly. What
is it that if you can repeat very briefly?
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Question: Raghav Ghar - Ambit Capital Private Limited - Analyst
: The thing is that also your view on vehicle finance stress taking about three to four resolve, right? So in light of that, do you -- what will be your
credit cost guidance for next year? That's my first question. Thank you.
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah. So capacity utilization, if you see that the inflation of the vegetable has gone up during last one year we have seen that significantly. That is
also because of the supply is being less. So if supply is less than onion being transported by the a small vehicle -- the small commercial vehicle
between Nasik to Mumbai, the number of trips have come down.
So it came down as low as 50% and then started going up. The capacity utilization has started improving as the supply of the vegetable, supply of
the food has improved. Last mile transportation has improved, the capacity utilization is improving month-on-month. But it has come to 70%, 80%
now. And it's required to move further. I'm talking from the small commercial vehicle point of view.
Similarly, when you see that industrial production or the GDP is strongly correlated with heavy commercial vehicle capacity utilization. There, we
see that the on-ground activity on infra, road, mining and manufacturing are slightly down. It has improved in November and December, but it's
still not up.
So in the heavy commercial vehicle, the sales are down and the portfolio for quality, capacity utilization is slightly getting impacted. Though Chola
is not more exposed in the heavy commercial vehicle. So we do not have that problem as far as the HCV is concerned. And HCV problem has started
now. Small commercial vehicle, light commercial vehicle problem actually started last year, which is now coming down, and it is improving in fact.
So therefore, in order to basically see that the NCL will start coming down to the industry level, I see at least three to four quarters there. From
Chola's point of view, I think our exposure, our net credit cost should start coming down from quarter four onwards.
Question: Raghav Ghar - Ambit Capital Private Limited - Analyst
: Okay. Understood. And sir, my other question is LAP portfolio. So there also you've seen some NPLs increase now. I've seen the numbers, but if you
can give a more ground level flavor as to what are the reasons why a customer is finding it difficult to make the repayments? So that's another
question, sir.
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Unidentified Company Representative
So LAP is concerned, we have -- in the last two, three years, we have significantly reduced our Stage 3 and these are all regular normal roll forwards,
which is as a BAU roll forward. If you look at it still at the overall Stage 3 level, it's holding at 2.25%. So there is no significant change in terms of the
movement in the Stage 3.
If you look at even December '23 Stage 3 of LAP book, it was about INR803 crore. So -- and we are almost at the same level for the last 12 months.
Maybe there is a dip because of some resolutions (inaudible) resolutions happening in between and then normal roll forward happen. So it has
remained stagnant for last -- in fact in the last 15 months, it's almost on the same level.
Question: Abhijit Tibrewal - Motilal Oswal Services Ltd - Analyst
: Yeah, good evening everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Two questions, first one, a clarification question. Ravi sir, when you say things
will start improving from 4Q and maybe it will take three to four quarters for things to get normalized. What I'm trying to understand is I mean,
what is the underlying rationale, when you say that, is it more in the nature of seasonality that we see in 4Q or do we think that the macro stem
cells will start improving? And some better governments CapEx which will lead to an improvement that we are talking about.
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Question: Abhijit Tibrewal - Motilal Oswal Services Ltd - Analyst
: Got it. And sir, then the second question that I had was more on used vehicle and two-wheelers. Sir, I mean, people, other lenders, other NBFCs,
some banks have talked about some stress that we are seeing in used vehicle business. I'm talking about more about the refinance part of used
vehicle business, which is often treated as a consumption loan. So what are we seeing there?
And sir, two-wheeler, again, I mean, we've heard some lenders talk about challenges in two-wheeler in terms of collections because the ticket sizes
are low, given that whatever stresses are being seen in micro finance there are some spillovers. So what is our assessment of the used vehicle
refinance business and the two-wheeler business?
Question: Abhijit Tibrewal - Motilal Oswal Services Ltd - Analyst
: Got it, sir. Thank you and for just one, again, one last question.
Question: Abhijit Tibrewal - Motilal Oswal Services Ltd - Analyst
: Sure. Thank you.
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: Yeah, thanks a lot for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions. Sir, Kundu sir, one clarification. I think you mentioned operator profitability was
50% and now at 70 -- sorry, the capacity utilization was 50% and now it's 70% to 80%. So are you comparing 3Q to 2Q or 3Q to 3Q last year for SUVs
and LCVs?
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: But doesn't that improvement generally always happen like 3Q is more active. So I assume that always be the case.
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: Okay. Understood. So it's 50%.
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: So it's 50%, 70%, 80% this year, and that was 70% and 90% levels last year for an SCVs and LCVs?
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: Got it. And second, just on your disbursement level sequentially in the new businesses, even if I look at home loan is now flat, LAP has come down,
even CSEL is done, but I think CSEL will be more because your partnership with higher disbursements. So -- but on the LAP and HL, the trend, how
do you see it moving forward for you to achieve your 25% growth target for next year?
Question: Pranuj Shah - JPMorgan - Analyst
: Got it. Thank you, sir. I'll come back in the queue.
Question: Hardik Shah - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Thank you. Am I audible sir?
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah.
Question: Hardik Shah - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Okay. So the transmission will happen not immediately, but with some kind of lag, so can you just think in terms of what that lag could look like
for you?
Unidentified Company Representative
It depends on whether our borrowings are also getting the impact of the Repo. So for example, we have MCLRs which may not reduce. So then we
will not be able to reduce it because there unless the banks pass it on, we will not be able to reduce it. So you need to understand month-on-month,
we drove this exercise and then the factoring what is the pricing for the book that needs to be done. It depends on how fast on the borrowing we
get the impact, then it will get pass it on.
Question: Hardik Shah - Goldman Sachs - Analyst
: Okay, thank you, sir.
Question: Subramanya Iyer - Morgan Stanley - Analyst
: Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I just had a couple of data questions. So one is your P&L you net gain on the of financial instruments of INR65 crores.
Is this assignment? I just wanted to confirm that.
Unidentified Company Representative
Yeah, it is an assignment. We have an opportunity to do. Normally, we have not been doing, but this time there was a request from one of the
banks, so we thought we'll do it.
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Question: Subramanya Iyer - Morgan Stanley - Analyst
: Understood. Thanks so much and wish you all the best.
Question: Piran Engineer - CLSA India Private Limited - Analyst
: Yeah. Hi, team. Congrats on the quarter. Couple of questions. Firstly, how should we think about growth in LAP over a two, three year period? I was
going to ask for home loans also, but you already answered that. But on home loans, how confident are you to maintain yields at 16% and also
grow at 30%.
Unidentified Company Representative
So we'll take the LAP first. So we have been growing last three, four years consistently. And if you look at it earlier because of the lower denominator
effect, it was showing a higher percentage and we have grown to a certain state where 25% of disbursement growth and about 35% to 40% of
AUM growth is what we look at it on a steady state.
And that's what we're looking at and that is what we are very confident and we are working towards in achieving that. So you can take 25% of
disbursement growth and 35% to 40% of the growth for LAP
Question: Piran Engineer - CLSA India Private Limited - Analyst
: So your voice is not clear.
Question: Piran Engineer - CLSA India Private Limited - Analyst
: Understood. And sir, just secondly, on the used car market, you mentioned that used commercial vehicle was under stress for the last four, five
quarters. But one of the other players also recently mentioned that used car market is seeing delinquencies. Is that also what you are seeing? And
what is the sort of actions that you all are taking?
Unidentified Company Representative
So for us, our used car market is -- the used car business is doing well. It is not having any stress, like it is improving. As such, we are doing well in
that segment.
Question: Suhas Hari - ICICI Prudential - Analyst
: I think there was a mistake. I don't think, I really asked. There was some errors in that. Sorry for that.
Question: Abhishek M - HSBC - Analyst
: Yeah, hello, good evening and thanks for taking my question. So sir, I think for credit cost initially, you all had called out about 1.3% for the year.
You're at 1.4% YTD. So do you still hold on to 1.3% because 4Q should be much better typically, even if it is higher than last year. Or do you think
1.4% is more the level to think about.
Question: Abhishek M - HSBC - Analyst
: As an outer target. Okay. And next year should be better based on your commentary that on new CV tractor, LCV, HCV, I think generally your
commentary on vehicle and then as you come out of partnership, etcetera and CSEL so it should be better next year.
Question: Abhishek M - HSBC - Analyst
: Understood sir. And margins just quickly, you expect it to improve as rates come down or do you think that will have to be passed on and basically
margins should remain flattish from here?
Question: Abhishek M - HSBC - Analyst
: Got it. Thank you so much and all the best. Thank you.
Unidentified Company Representative
Thank you.
Question: Vikram Subramanian - Marshall Wace - Analyst
: Hello. Hi, sir. Thanks for taking my question. Just to follow up on asset quality. I know it's been discussed quite a bit but just wanted to get a bit
more clarity. A couple of things that I understand from what you have commented is one edge had quite a bit of systemic issues because of heat
wave and election and all of that which resulted in significant drop in capacity utilization.
And right now there is a bit of stress and HCV, capacity utilization as well. But given that now in 2H you see capacity utilization has increased
significantly and our proportion of HCV is also quite low. Why isn't that we'll, we won't see a sharp credit cost reduction in 4Q. Ideally, that should
be the case, right? Given that the base has so much stress, 1H and 3Q. Can you give some explanation or color there, please?
Question: Vikram Subramanian - Marshall Wace - Analyst
: Okay. Fair enough. And just another follow up on OpEx. I think one of the previous participants had asked about the investment phase and when
OpEx reduce. From your comment, is it right to understand for the next couple of years OpEx to assets will be flat and then it will start to reduce?
Question: Vikram Subramanian - Marshall Wace - Analyst
: Okay. Thanks. That's it, sir.
Question: Viral Shah - IIFL Securities - Analyst
: Hello. Yeah, so sir, I have a few follow ups on the questions that have been already kind of answered. But some bit of ambiguity. So one is on CSEL,
you mentioned that the credit cost actually increased. And of course, it is because of partnership and that why you get another income. But when
I look at your yields, which includes other income that is actually sequentially declined. So how should we think about it?
Question: Viral Shah - IIFL Securities - Analyst
: Okay, got it. And sir, your comments with regards to various subsegments of the vehicle have been quite helpful. Just one I think the missing piece
over there is how is the used heavy commercial vehicle doing? So while you mentioned heavy, it probably is now getting into the relative stress
and will take now three, four quarters to improve. But the used heavy, how is it trending and more so from a market perspective, I know we are
not the big players.
Question: Viral Shah - IIFL Securities - Analyst
: And you mean to say they used heavy, right? Not the used small and medium?
Question: Viral Shah - IIFL Securities - Analyst
: Okay, sir. And sir, with regards to your the home loan piece, so we saw 20 bps decline sequentially in terms of yields. What was it driven by?
Unidentified Company Representative
So there are two points in that. There were also the interest reversal on the PMI part which has been mandated by RBI on the reversal interest of
the customers. And also the yields, have -- as we go to self employed self category, the yields are slightly being competitive and we are going to
stabilize at the places. So at same level, the yields we are going to maintain.
Question: Viral Shah - IIFL Securities - Analyst
: Got it, sir. Thank you so much and all the best.
Question: Renish Bhuva - ICICI Securities Ltd - Analyst
: Yeah, hi sir. Thanks for the opportunity. So just two things from my side again on the expense ratio side. So I do understand that in some of the
new businesses, the expense ratio could be higher. But when we look at the vehicle finance business, the cost ratio has been increasing, it is now
a standard 3.4% versus 2.8% first quarter of '24 and 3.2% last quarter. So how one to think about it is the competitive intensity which is leading to
higher payouts at the dealer point and hence the increase or there is some structural change in the business model which is getting to higher cost
ratio sir.
Question: Renish Bhuva - ICICI Securities Ltd - Analyst
: Got it. And so just last thing again on the housing loan. So at roughly INR17,000 crore of book at 15%, 16% yield, we are targeting 35% kind of a
growth. So, I mean is there any huge white space available wherein we see this kind of growth or we see sharp moderation in yields maybe a couple
of years down the line.
Question: Renish Bhuva - ICICI Securities Ltd - Analyst
: Got it. Okay. That's it from my side, sir. Thank you and best of luck.
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Unidentified Company Representative
Thank you.
Question: Aravind R - Sundaram Alternates - Analyst
: Thank you so much for the opportunity, team. And congratulations on the good set of numbers. Sir, like you mentioned, so much about asset
quality. I would like to get a qualitative view like just like in vehicle finance, you mentioned any system issues, MSME, LAP, affordable housing,
these are the segments actually have grown much faster, not just for us, but for the entire system. Do you see any leverage related issues for the
system level like in affordable housing segment or in the LAP segment, that could suffer.
Question: Aravind R - Sundaram Alternates - Analyst
: No, this is fair. But we are seeing in, different affordable housing portfolios of different companies, the because of the exposure to objective, there
is some level of stress. I'm not seeing a significant stress coming out yet, but I was just trying to understand that. Do you see any risks down the
line in affordable housing or LAP?
Question: Aravind R - Sundaram Alternates - Analyst
: Sure. Thank you, sir.
Question: Roshan Chutkey - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund - Analyst
: Yeah, thanks so much for taking the question. Just one question, sir at the system level for the CD book, how are you reading the asset quality --
what is your read of the asset quality for the system?
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Unidentified Company Representative
Sorry?
Question: Roshan Chutkey - ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund - Analyst
: Okay. Thanks, sir. That's all from my side.
Question: Kunal Shah - Citi - Analyst
: Yeah. Thanks for taking the question. So I understand on the home loan side of 15% disbursement growth translating because of the stickiness of
the longer duration. But in general, when we look at it, the overall disbursement run rate has been quite low over the past few quarters across the
segments. So still we are continuing with almost like 25% AUM growth.
So business loans, we have seen that there's hardly like 700%-odd growth and few of the segments have started to show stress. So now why still
being confident on the overall AUM growth or do we see any kind of a risk out there, because disbursement growth in other segments is not
suggesting that, yeah.
Question: Kunal Shah - Citi - Analyst
: Sure. And secondly, in terms of the vehicle OpEx to assets, so you indicated why it's been higher but have picked out and should we see the
improvement going forward or will it again take few quarter and it will stay elevated?
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Question: Kunal Shah - Citi - Analyst
: No, OpEx to assets in vehicles?
Unidentified Company Representative
Okay. OpEx to asset. OpEx to asset is going to be flat for some time and then vehicle financial start reducing. And because they are speaking of the
collection and give people what we have added in last 1, 1.5 years. Further, we need not increase it to achieve the next financial year. That will help
us to reduce OpEx in vehicle finance.
But at an overall level, what he said is that it will be flattish for some time because we have to grow and we're continuously working on both product
launching as well as the technology improvement and the branch expansion as well as going on.
Question: Nischint Chawathe - Kotak Securities Ltd - Analyst
: Thank you very much for joining us today. We thank the management for providing us an opportunity to host the call.
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