CF Industries Holdings Inc Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Benjamin Theurer - Barclays Services Corp - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, Tony, all the best in retirement, I'm pretty sure you have plenty of things you want to do so enjoy that. And that's -- it was quite a run, I guess. So that's never bad. So enjoy that peace. And maybe as well for you, Chris, all the best on your new assignment as CEO. So two quick questions I ask. So one, you've talked about in your presentation material about like how like the mid-cycle where you are right now in the mid-cycle where you think you're going to be in three, four years' time as you get like these additional projects come through. So I just want to understand, like the current market conditions obviously still seem to a degree stretched, right, with the European gas price somewhat elevated versus what maybe mid-cycle in the past was. So I wanted to get your view in terms of like the the bull versus the bear around that $2.5 billion mid-cycle mark, and how we should think about that evolving from a feed cost standpoint of view into the period of 2030? And then I have a very quick follow-up on pricing premiums. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. NOVEMBER 06, 2025 / 4:00PM, CF.N - Q3 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Benjamin Theurer - Barclays Services Corp - Analyst : Okay. Got it. And then that price premium on the ammonia you're selling in Europe, the blue ammonia that you're getting out of Donaldsonvile. Can you give us a little sense of magnitude as to the premium that you're getting here with your customers?

Question: Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC - Analyst : Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Again, I mean, Tony, clearly you will be missed. That's clearly the case and good luck with everything.

Question: Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC - Analyst : So quick question, again, maybe for you, Tony and maybe for Bert. In terms of -- I mean, as you noted, the nitrogen outlook looks very constructive. But if you were to dig in for possible boogie man in terms of trying to find something to worry about in the near or medium terms, like where would you look?

Question: Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC - Analyst : So one quick follow-up for you, and this is for Tony and Chris. I mean, Tony, you've talked about the valuation disconnect in your shares. Clearly, I guess like you failed to convince those jetted investors. Like what else do you think increase in cans that to? What else do you think you will need to do to convince investors of that valuation gap that you're clearly seeing?

Question: Christopher Parkinson - Wolfe Research LLC - Analyst : Tony, I'm not going to always say like say, great quarter, but I'll give you a shout out, and I'll say great 12 years. And through all the debates agreements and at times disagreements, you've always challenged me. So I'd like to personally thank you for that.

Question: Christopher Parkinson - Wolfe Research LLC - Analyst : It's been a pleasure. The question to both you and Bert. There's been -- and it shows you (inaudible). There's been a lot of inconsistency of supply throughout the entirety of this year. And you have things in Russia, Germany, Poland, Romania. I mean, perhaps this becomes a broader interview to longer-term question, but how much of the demand and the price strength do you attribute to the supply side of it versus the fact that demand, I think, broadly speaking, throughout the year-to-date, has also been pretty healthy and kind of led to these price rallies at times at non-seasonal time. So I really appreciate your perspectives and kind of how to think about '26 in the context of what we've actually been seeing experience -- what we've been experiencing in 2025. Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. NOVEMBER 06, 2025 / 4:00PM, CF.N - Q3 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Christopher Parkinson - Wolfe Research LLC - Analyst : Got it. And just as a quick follow-up. I mean, Tony, you've gone through your fair share of capacity expansions, both actually say very large brownfields and other brownfields and everything with your network, what have you, Bert and Chris, learned the most from all of those efforts over the last 12 or so years that Chris and his team can essentially apply to Blue Point to perhaps mitigate a lot of the things? Is there kind of a track record of lessons that you can really apply here, or is it just going to be every project is different at the end of the day?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : Good morning. Just echoing everybody else's comments, Tony, congratulations on a very successful career in guiding CF for a lot of market ups and downs. We've seen a lot. So enjoy your next chapter.

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : And so just maybe on the comments you made earlier around the valuation. I think you made some very fair points. So maybe a question for you and also for Chris, just given the value in shares and buybacks seem to be the path to kind of realize that value. You REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. NOVEMBER 06, 2025 / 4:00PM, CF.N - Q3 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call have a very strong balance sheet. Would there be any consideration for using debt to fund point and then maybe using the cash flows and cash generation to buy back shares that would not make more sense right now?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : Okay. Understood. And then maybe just one on costs. I think SG&A looked still just a little bit elevated for the quarter, obviously, not hugely, but just curious if there's anything there. And then also on just some of the non-gas costs, I suspect that the turnaround in the quarter contributed to some of that. Just wondering if there's anything to flag or anything...

Question: Kristen Owen - Oppenheimer & Co Inc - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for the question. I do want to start with a more strategic long view here just given some of the prepared remarks of the valuation disconnect. And given your comments on whether it's CBAM, where the Blue Point ammonia tons will go. Even some of your comments on (inaudible) help us understand, if we're looking at this business model in that 2030 framework, how much exposure really is ag more versus some of these more industrial applications? And how should we think about that mix contributing to that sort of mid-cycle framework?

Question: Kristen Owen - Oppenheimer & Co Inc - Analyst : Sure. Appreciate that. Perhaps a little clarification on my side. I'm not saying that there's some major move out of the ag market. It's more just how much more meaningful can the earnings potential be on the industrial side, given the uplift of some of these markets. So perhaps a slight clarification there. And while I'm here, I'll just ask my follow-up question. Just given the cost curve in China, a little bit more affordable to keep those a little bit more domestic affordability. So just any thoughts on China exports in 2026? Thank you.

Question: Lucas Beaumont - UBS AG - Analyst : Thanks. Good morning. Good luck with your retirement, Tony. Congrats on your career line.

Question: Lucas Beaumont - UBS AG - Analyst : (inaudible) you and the others. Yes, I just wanted to kind of ask about Blue Point. You guys noted that you had procured all the long lead time equipment now. So kind of where did the costs come in there compared to the budget kind of what percent of the project spend was that? And can you just remind us of any cost escalation components that are built in there for like inflation and tariffs, et cetera, between now and sort of when the delivery occurs? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. NOVEMBER 06, 2025 / 4:00PM, CF.N - Q3 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Lucas Beaumont - UBS AG - Analyst : Okay. Thanks. And then I guess just on the pricing outlook. I mean, you guys have kind of thought at length of that. I mean ammonia has been very tight. The pricing is strong. UA and Romania imports sort of running below trends heading into the fall in spring. So I mean, the near-term setup looks quite attractive. I mean, the same time, the future has sort of been coming off the past couple of months is gone from 12 and looking flattish year on year sort of is kind of now down about $1.50. So I guess just how do you kind of see those two factors resolving each together as we go through '26, or I guess if you do the reserve, then we not?

Question: Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : Thank you very much. I'm actually late to something else, but I want to stick around and just congratulate you, Tony, and say, thank you and good luck in the future.

Question: Matthew DeYoe - Bank of America - Analyst : Good morning. Tony, congrats on the run. I know I didn't cover you directly for much of the time, but Steve always how do with the highest regard. So I know that goes for the rest of us here at Team BofA. I wanted to ask, I guess, a little bit on the slide where we talk about like ammonia expansions and closures Certainly, we don't disagree that a number of European plans need to close chemicals across like a lot of chains. But if we look at that 3% to 4% number, I mean, what's the -- how much of that has been announced? What do you think the rates are that those plants are running? And then like I just know that closing plants is expensive and not really done easily. So I'd love a little bit more kind of commentary around your outlook for that capacity.