CF Industries Holdings Inc Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Edlain Rodriguez - Mizuho Securities USA LLC - Analyst : I mean, Tony, just kind of when you look forward into 2026 and beyond, I mean, again, given where crop prices are and where fertilizer prices are like what are you thinking there? I mean, again, kind of there's a disconnect between prices and put cost for farmers. So how do you see that develop over the course of next year?

Question: Lucas Beaumont - UBS AG - Analyst : Is there saw some cost pressure in the first half this year, both like on SG&A and your controllable non-gas production costs, which were both sort of higher year-on-year. So could you please just kind of talk us through what the drivers were there, if there's anything that was kind of more onetime and kind of think about the trajectory there going forward into the second half of next year?

Question: Jeffrey Zekauskas - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : On the DCS project, you talked about $100 million benefit. And I think I get that, there's an $85 a ton tax credit and maybe it's costing you $35 a ton for various isolations of the CO2. And so that gets you to an annualized rate of $100 million. In general, these are tax credits. When does the cash come in? And how do you account for it? That is you take the tax credits on an ongoing basis. When do you get paid from the government? How does that work?

Question: Jeffrey Zekauskas - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : Great. And just one follow-up. Can you talk about the theoretical relationship between the amount of ammonia made and the amount of CO2 captured? Sometimes, when you read the literature, it seems that CO2 capture should be much more in tonnage than the ammonia made? And what you have is something that's pretty close to 1:1. Can you describe what's going on?

Question: Mason Manware - Oppenheimer & Co Inc - Analyst : This is Mason Manware on for Kristen. I just wanted to follow up on the carbon capture at Donaldsonville question, in particular, the contribution of the credits in Q3, understanding that the 45Q for enhanced oil recovery is different from the permanent sequestration credit. Can you just help us understand the economics of the EOR credit? And is there any additional costs related to that process? Or should we just think about the similar flow-through just off that lower credit value? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. AUGUST 07, 2025 / 3:00PM, CF.N - Q2 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : I'm wondering, I think the press release talked about an expectation that China will not export further this year, at least after 3Q. So just curious what's driving that view, if it's anything in particular you're picking up on the ground with your sources in China?

Question: Vincent Andrews - Morgan Stanley - Analyst : What about for the fourth quarter? It sounds like you don't expect it for the fourth quarter? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. AUGUST 07, 2025 / 3:00PM, CF.N - Q2 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Matthew DeYoe - Bank of America - Analyst : Look, I know you made some comments about insufficient nitrogen supply additions. But what do you make of some of the larger capacity functions for urea that CRU has kind of noted or flagging coming to the market in the next five years in China. It's kind of the prevailing assumption that China won't build that or it just won't get exported given some of the current policies?

Question: Matthew DeYoe - Bank of America - Analyst : I appreciate that. And one more, I guess, if we think about the blue and green ammonia market, how much do you think ultimately could get moved into, say, Asian energy markets for shipping, right? Like what's the -- how much tonnage can that ultimately be?

Question: Benjamin Theurer - Barclays Services Corp - Analyst : Just wanted to understand a little bit better the sequential dynamics in ammonia. If we take a look at 2Q versus 1Q, it feels like the gas price came down, but at the same time, gross margin was actually significantly worse on a sequential basis. So I just want to understand what's been happening here and how we should think about the back half of the year as it relates to -- assuming gas prices where they are right now, what that should do to your Nutrien adjusted gross margin per ton?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : Maybe a topical question for today to start. What's your view on how a Russia and Ukraine truce or some sort of p-settlement could impact on natural gas prices and also on the nitrogen market?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : Okay. I appreciate all that. And then maybe just switching over to Europe. With the implementation of CBAM, can you just talk about how you see that impacting the markets, both in Europe and globally. And how does that change to all of Europe at the marginal cost better?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : And maybe just the other part of the question just on the nitrogen market itself, like what is the impact there and on EU in its marginal cost role?

Question: Andrew Wong - RBC Capital Markets Inc - Analyst : No, just in general, like EU right now is the marginal cost setter kind of, right, with the high cost as -- does that raise your cost profile? Does it change like how the market works and maybe they're a different part of the market now or kind of that? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. AUGUST 07, 2025 / 3:00PM, CF.N - Q2 2025 CF Industries Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Question: Aron Ceccarelli - Joh Berenberg Gossler & Co KG - Analyst : What is CF's perspective on nitrogen fixation products? Do you see these products as a growing risk to traditional nitrogen producers? Or do you expect farmers to adopt them as a complementary solution? And perhaps additionally, would CF be interested in entering the nitrogen fixation market?