Q3 2024 AXA SA Activities Report Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: David Barma - BofA Securities - Analyst : Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Firstly, on the nat cat. So it's reassuring to see that your exposure to the hurricane is contained. But we've had a lot of weather events in Europe recently, in particular, in France, in Spain and in Italy. Are you saying you're on track for 4.5%, including those events? Or is that assuming a normal quarter for Q4? Secondly, on Life & Health and the new business margin, which was quite a bit lower, both in Life and in health, especially in the Europe segment. Could you explain what the drivers were for this? And also the third quarter new business margin in health was seasonally strong in Q3 and previous years. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 31, 2024 / 8:00AM, AXAF.PA - Q3 2024 AXA SA Activities Report Call So maybe there's an element there. And then on the US commercial lines. One of your peers was reporting an acceleration in commercial lines pricing in Q3, excluding professional lines with prices now ahead of loss trends. So could you give us a bit more color on where you're seeing conditions improve and where you're not? Thank you.

Question: David Barma - BofA Securities - Analyst : Thank you.

Question: Farooq Hanif - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : Just given what -- the answer to the question you've just given, can you talk about your visibility around your 200 basis point combined ratio P&C improvement target, given that you've got there very, very quickly already compared to full year '23, what scope do you see of exceeding that target? That's question one. Question two is what signs are you seeing of any personalized pricing tailing of in 3Q not just the UK, which we know is coming down but in other markets. And last question, is the growth rate in health outside of Europe has been very, very strong. Can you kind of highlight some markets there? And what you see is kind of potential momentum next year in the market?

Question: Farooq Hanif - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : And my question actually was more on outside of Europe, the growth there. But we -- I mean, we can come back to that.

Question: Farooq Hanif - JPMorgan Chase & Co - Analyst : Yes. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. OCTOBER 31, 2024 / 8:00AM, AXAF.PA - Q3 2024 AXA SA Activities Report Call

Question: Andrew Baker - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. - Analyst : First one is just on P&C top line growth expectations. I know you've sort of given the expectations across the planning period. You're clearly tracking ahead of that so far. So as we think about the growth -- top line growth in '25 and '26, should we expect some normalization below the 5% level? Or is that 5% go still a good working assumption for those years? Secondly, on are you able to just to give some -- what you're thinking in terms of the German motor renewals that are coming up? And then finally, just on tax. Again, I know you've previously said that the tax changes in France are very manageable. Now you've got a bit more color there. Are you able to give any guidance on the impact on the group tax rate?

Question: Michael Huttner - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG - Analyst : Congratulations on the loan nat cats. I was going to ask the other way, but obviously, you've answered all [at least]. I had just -- just to -- the first one is on the capital generation, so 16 points at the half year, seven in Q3. So if I had another seven, I get to 30, which is the top end of your guidance range. And I was just wondering whether you can say whether that's a new number we can use going forward given that you really delivering on track, there say little volatility. And then the other question is, I think you kind of answered it, but I don't know maybe I'd be lucky. So 7% seems to be the magic top line number. I know you're saying five going forward. Momentum in insurance, makes me believe maybe seven continue. And you have -- in terms of underlying EPS, the figure is 6% to 8%. But given that buybacks would kind of add another 1% and there's lots of operating leverage things going on. My guess is the set would normally translate in at least 9%. And I just wonder whether you can maybe comment on that, you'll probably say no, next year or something, I don't know. And then the last one is on UK Health. I detect a slowdown in -- or slight reticence here relative to what I had hoped, not what you've said, but what I'd hoped all the actions which you've already taken. It seems it's a much slower process. Maybe you could comment on that.

Question: Michael Huttner - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG - Analyst : And UK Health?

Question: William Hardcastle - UBS Investment Bank - Analyst : It's just one, is there anything you can say on lapse experience in the quarter? Is that possible? .

Question: William Hawkins - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Limited - Analyst : I have a couple of follow-ups on the nat cats, I'm afraid, but it is amazing how your losses have improved. I was rereading the 3Q '19 press release and your severity experience has improved significantly. So in that context, can you just tell me the EUR200 million you're referring to, what's the gross versus the net on that number, please? Because I'm trying to get a sense of whether this small figure is because exposure is down dramatically because you've been clever in the protection that you bought? And then secondly, you've already counted on the budget. But can I just be clear how much of the 4.5% is left untouched at the end of the nine months, please? And then lastly, just a different topic. On Solvency II, when we're looking to the outlook, can you just refresh my memory on what we're expecting from the benefits of the Solvency II reform please? I can't remember time line, and I'm presuming it's going to be a positive impact, but I just wonder if you could update me on how big that positive impact may be, please?

Question: Dominic O'mahony - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : One specific question. Thank you for the color on Germany. It's good to hear us understand that, that's absolutely where it should be from an underwriting perspective. Can I also just ask about Switzerland? I mean it sounds from what you're saying like -- Switzerland, you're happy with the underwriting performance. You're not in remediation mode. I just wanted to confirm that's right and get any further color you have on the Swiss business and the trading conditions. My second question is a bit loser. Just reflecting on what you mean about conditions in global commercial, I guess, in particular, North America commercial. I think the message is that excluding financial lines, actually, pricing is pretty good. There's no sign of things turning. I suppose my question is financial lines have been difficult. And I just wanted to get your diagnosis of why financial lines have been difficult and I guess related to that, why do you think that the rest of the business, I guess, the property side in particular and specialty side, why you're not wide up deterioration there. I hope that wasn't too loose, but thank you for in advance for your answer.

Question: Andrew Crean - Bernstein Autonomous LLP - Analyst : Three questions. One, a numerical question. If rates stay where they are at year-end, what will be the discounting impact on your own rising versus the 3.7% last year? Secondly, you talked about Solvency II not benefiting upstreaming. But is there anything that you're doing in the next year or so to improve upstreaming? I'm thinking either of increasing the level of internal reinsurance of your P&C business up from the 25% or actions in, say, Germany, where I think there is trapped capital? And then thirdly, I wanted to ask about an issue, casualty reserving for more recent years, which has been highlighted by travelers in Hartford. Is that an issue for you? Or do you think the delay in settlement is just because of jamming up the court system in the US as opposed to sharing signs that there's a deterioration in the underlying business?

Question: Henry Heathfield - Morningstar Inc. - Analyst : Just going back to the impact from Hurricanes Helen and Milton. I'm wondering if you could outline the EUR200 million of expected claims that result from that weather or actually whether you could outline the natural capacity impact incurred in euro terms year-to-date to the end of the first nine months. And then with regard to the kind of XL reinsurance business, I also noticed some EUR100 million gross premiums and other revenue within Life & Health. And I was wondering if you're also writing Life & Health reinsurance as well as property and casualty?

Question: Pierre Chedeville - CIC Market Solutions (ESN) - Analyst : Yes. Two questions. Regarding Italy, I recently read a paper -- an interview from the CEO of was seriously considering the reintegration of insurance inside the bank. And I wanted to know if you had any discussion regarding that point with that bank. And regarding asset management, we can be a little bit disappointed by the net inflows with third parties. Could you explain that? And what are your views on that even if you are selling AXA?