Q1 2025 AXA SA Activities Report Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: David Barma - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Firstly, I wanted to ask about the price trends at XL, both on the primary and reinsurance sides. I'm quite impressed by the plus 3% you're mentioning, Albin, in commercial pricing, financial lines, and the plus 1 in reinsurance when market commentary for both has been much more negative, especially on North American property risk. So can you impact that a bit for us, please, and explain whether mixed effects have a big impact in the quarter, please? And then secondly, staying on reinsurance, the volume growth was very strong. Can you explain the increase in the transfer to ILS in this period? Why this is happening now? And if there's any call you can share on the sort of margin on that business? And then lastly, on personal lines, the volumes have recovered in Europe, remained down year on year. Can you give a bit of color on the trends by geography of where you're growing and where you're shrinking volumes? Thank you.

Question: Michael Huttner - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. - Analyst : Thank you very much. Great results. Three questions. The 2.5 billion net inflows, you said that would lift CSM growth and lift profit growth. I wonder if you can give us a feel for how much it could lift them. The 4.5% budget for NatCats. I'll ask two questions here. When you say lower, was it much lower? Was it a little bit lower in Q1? In your 7% addition to Solvency from operating capital generation, did you put in the 4.5% or the actual number? And then my last question is, if we add layer in health, what would be in the growth? Thank you.

Question: Andrew Baker - Goldman Sachs International - Analyst : Great. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, just following up on the AXA XL retention of 90% that you mentioned in Q1, can you just help us put that into the historical context? So what would that 90% look like over the past couple of years? And then secondly, how are you thinking about the direct and indirect impacts of the US tariffs? And can you just remind me your EPS sensitivity to US dollar weakening as well? Thank you.

Question: Farooq Hanif - J.P. Morgan Securities plc - Analyst : Hi, thank you very much. I just want to clarify again on pricing at AxoXL. So can you tell us what the pricing that you're seeing generally ex-financial lines is, sorry, in property is at AxoXL? You gave a number for casualty. And you seem to be implying that you've grown your exposure to casualty versus property. So is that correct? And what are the relative margins between the casualty business and the property business that you're seeing? So that's question area number one. Secondly, just looking at the health business, you seem to be suggesting that there's been positive pricing trends as well as volume. How is this sort of comparing to your kind of expectations for marginal improvements in health? Thank you very much.

Question: Farooq Hanif - J.P. Morgan Securities plc - Analyst : Just to return maybe if I quickly can on the XR points that you made. So presumably you have increased your exposure to casualty versus property. on average. What are the relative margins? So I know the pricing is very strong, but is it a weak combined ratio business?

Question: William Hardcastle - UBS Limited - Analyst : Oh, hi there. Thanks for taking the question. Just one from me left. In personal lines, and you've touched on it a little bit, but just a bit more color, if you can give the current strategy on pricing and volume in some of those major markets like France, Germany, and the UK, I guess how much volume did you actually achieve in these markets in the first quarter, if you're willing to give that? Thank you.

Question: William Hawkins - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Limited - Analyst : Good morning, Alban. Thank you. Sticking with personal lines, can you help me interpret the change in the nominal rate increase that you've published? The headline figure is 6%, which is much lower than 10% last year. Can you talk a bit more about what's happening to lost-cost inflation against that? If I were assuming that maybe lost-cost inflation was a stable 5%, and so on, yeah. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MAY 07, 2025 / 7:00AM, AXAF.PA - Q1 2025 AXA SA Activities Report Call Can you talk a bit about Switzerland? What's happening there? You know, that's an area where you've seen an acceleration of nominal rate increases, quite a big one in personal lines relative to the history, but also in commercial lines as well. So could you just give us a bit of a narrative of what's happening in Switzerland, please? And then lastly, sorry, just to clarify, I'm still a bit confused if it's been a light nat-cac water, Why your CapGen impact on the solvency is only in line with the budget? I would have thought either there's an offsetting negative or something else. Did you answer to Michael Hartner that you effectively just booked the budget, even though you're telling us that cats are light? Or is there some offset against the light cats that brings your CapGen back down to normal? Thank you.

Question: William Hawkins - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Limited - Analyst : Excellent. Thank you.

Question: Fahad Changazi - Kepler Cheuvreux - Analyst : Oh, hello. Thank you for taking my question. Just two brief ones. On the health business, actually, could you just expand in terms of your, you've done 1.4 and you're looking to do 3%, and it was going to be driven by pricing, claims initiatives, and the UK recovery. Could you just update us where you are in each of these three aspects as you attain your target? and sorry, just one quick, quick question on Solvency II. Is the SCR development Q1 in line with the previous guidance of 3% growth, which is incorporating the 25 to 30% capital generation target? Thank you very much. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. MAY 07, 2025 / 7:00AM, AXAF.PA - Q1 2025 AXA SA Activities Report Call

Question: Fahad Changazi - Kepler Cheuvreux - Analyst : Okay, thank you very much.

Question: Andrew Crean - Bernstein Autonomous LLP - Analyst : Good morning, all. Can I delve a little bit more into the NATCATs? I mean, the California wildfires are 0.5% and your budget is 4.5%. I mean, just how much better than average are you? I know Storm Ewan and Hermannia were quite big in UK and Ireland for Intact. Second question, bit of detail. Can you give us a sense of the UK motor pricing through the quarter? I mean, when you say moderating, I assume that's a tactful way of saying prices were being cut. But my understanding is that pricing in UK motor actually stabilized as you went through the quarter. Is that your experience? And then thirdly, a slightly odd question, 2024, operating profits from your US subsidiaries. Can you give us what they were? It'll be presumably part of the XL profits, but I'd be interested to know what that figure was.

Question: Andrew Crean - Bernstein Autonomous LLP - Analyst : Third one is in full-year '24, what were the operating profits from your US subsidiaries? There may be a question to take later.

Question: Rhea Shah - Deutsche Bank AG London - Analyst : Hi, thank you. Just three quick questions for me. So the first one is, Albon, I think you mentioned that the XL underlying growth rate, if you exclude the impact of a large contract with mid-single digits in the first quarter, is that how you expect the growth to be over the rest of the year? Second question on asset management, is there any more you expect in terms of these large redemptions ahead of July? And then the third question, in terms of solvency, could you quantify the impact of the widening Japanese spreads to the sovereign situation in the first quarter.

Question: Dominic O'Mahony - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Hello, and you've given very comprehensive answers to all the questions, so I've only got a couple of detailed ones. One is just on (inaudible) recaptures. You were clear that the 0.4 billion with the quarter is, you know, we should multiply that by four. I had in mind about 800 million for a full year. Is that right, or have I got that wrong? Just another detailed point on the ILS sessions. You've been clear that you are not looking to grow reinsurance. Should I infer that essentially all of that 12% growth is then ILS, or is it a subset? And then the third point, a broader point, you mentioned very helpfully the list of equity sensitivity is only two points for a 25% drawdown, which is clearly much lower than the published sensitivity. I just thought I'd ask you to maybe explain a bit how the valuation of the unlisted equities would respond to a drawdown in the region of 25%. I mean, is there a mechanical feed-through so that you would essentially mark-to-market in a similar way for the unlisted or would you expect it to be more muted because of the way you value them? Thank you.

Question: Dominic O'Mahony - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Very helpful. Thank you.

Question: Michael Huttner - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. - Analyst : It was just one. You know the 9% growth at XXL, which includes Would I take a captive? What would be the kind of more underlying number, I guess?