Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : But maybe just to kick it off, if there's possibly anybody who's not familiar with Lumentum, how do you like to introduce the company to a new investor?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Oh, yeah.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Honeymoon's over.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So I'd like to try to structure these conversations with a little -- for people who are new and something for the folks in the weeds, why don't we sort of start out at a little bit of a higher level because the term laser covers a lot of stuff. So maybe double-click and give people a little bit of education as to what are the lasers you're making? What don't you make? What's important in terms of lasers. So sort of double-click as to, yeah, where does it matter for Lumentum?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Now, I think there's another way to sort of further subdivide in that when people talk about the EMLs used for data centers, they sometimes

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So your answers have been very focused on inside the data center. Now, a number of years ago, Lumentum acquired a company called NeoPhotonics, which gave you some narrow-linewidth lasers, how does that sort of fit into the narrative? What's different about that market?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So it leads nicely to sort of the next question. We often hear from the OEMs like the Cienas of the world, as well as other prospective partners like an NVIDIA, as an example, about these customers thinking about doing more vertical integration. So their messaging is often we're LSEG STREETEVENTS | www.lseg.com | Contact Us consent of LSEG. 'LSEG' and the LSEG logo are registered trademarks of LSEG and its affiliated companies. DECEMBER 08, 2025 / 3:40PM, LITE.OQ - Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference going to get more vertical integration. How should we think about the risk to Lumentum that a laser becomes something they vertically integrate?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Now that's sort of one of the other things that I wanted to kind of delve into a little bit because it's not just the customers, but we hear from coherent ramping production, Broadcom ramping production, the Japanese players like Sumitomo. So we're frequently asked, when does the market come in balance. So everybody has the same messaging, right? Demand exceeds supply. When do you think the market gets into better balance?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And you -- I think you've talked about adding 40% by June of this year. That's relative to what date. What's the --? LSEG STREETEVENTS | www.lseg.com | Contact Us consent of LSEG. 'LSEG' and the LSEG logo are registered trademarks of LSEG and its affiliated companies. DECEMBER 08, 2025 / 3:40PM, LITE.OQ - Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And then I wanted to talk a little bit about this 200-gig cycle in that I think you've given us a metric. You expect it to be 10% in the March quarter. I say 10% of revenue or volumes? How should we think about that value?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Volumes. And so I've assumed the ASPs, it cost more than 100 gig per lane?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So how should we think about the trajectory of that mix and how that affects the business? And what I'm really getting at is, so you're an analyst, you're trying to build a financial model. And I've now got another variable. It's not just capacity increase, but ASP increase. How should we think about that math?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And there's been this, I think, long-running debate about which laser wins. EML versus VCSELs versus CW. And I feel like one of the messages that came out of the ECOC show back in September was that CW and silicon photonics was taking over the market. Now my theory is, you say that if you can't buy EMLs. So I'm leading the witness of course, and I'm sure you're a little biased, but how do you think about the competitive forces among different architectures and what's sort of the right answer for the industry?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So I want to pivot topics to the optical circuit switches, or OCS. So interestingly, I don't know if you caught this. The market researchers at Signal AI, they increased their forecast.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : No surprise.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : $2.5 billion by 2029, which maybe proves a little bit conservative, I think, but we'll see. Maybe, first of all, help people understand what this market is, what you do here and how you're seeing that market developing.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And for you, what are any milestones or limitations, capacity to get from $10 million a quarter to $100 million by just to clarify, December of '26 calendar quarter. What needs to happen? Do you have the manufacturing set? What are your hurdles?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Now do you do the MEMS yourself? Or is there an outside contractor that does that fabrication?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And there are a number of different architectures or designs. Do you feel like MEMS has a particular advantage over, say, LCDs or piezoelectric? Or it's a black box, it doesn't matter what's inside?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So I want to go to co-packaged optics. So I think it's interesting to tell folks to sort of a little bit of the back story in that. I think if you look at Lumentum stock chart from sort of December of '24 till March of '25, it just was down, down, down because co-packaged optics were the end of Lumentum. And then Jensen gets up on stage and shows his slide to announce co-packaged optics, lo and behold, Lumentum has a partner. So I think from that day on, the stock is just pretty much gone up. So market perceives co-packaged optics is now a good thing, not a bad thing, maybe unpack this a bit. I assume you think it's a good thing, too. LSEG STREETEVENTS | www.lseg.com | Contact Us consent of LSEG. 'LSEG' and the LSEG logo are registered trademarks of LSEG and its affiliated companies. DECEMBER 08, 2025 / 3:40PM, LITE.OQ - Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : And how do you think about sizing the co-packaged optics opportunity? I know we've got sizing for OCS. We have sizing for transceivers. This is a trickier one, I feel.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Now, are you in that project? Or is that something where they're vertically integrating?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : They do. LSEG STREETEVENTS | www.lseg.com | Contact Us consent of LSEG. 'LSEG' and the LSEG logo are registered trademarks of LSEG and its affiliated companies. DECEMBER 08, 2025 / 3:40PM, LITE.OQ - Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So some of the work we've done is looking at how the sort of architectures evolve. So it seems as if when you talk about co-packaged optics, these are for scale-out rack to rack. So when we get to a point where optics are necessary for scale up, my guess, 2029?

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : So believe it or not, we've run out of time. I think I've got another hour worth of question. So I appreciate it. We'll take it up again, maybe at OFC.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : No, let me just ask you to sort of close with what do you think is the least appreciated or most misunderstood aspect of the Lumentum story? LSEG STREETEVENTS | www.lseg.com | Contact Us consent of LSEG. 'LSEG' and the LSEG logo are registered trademarks of LSEG and its affiliated companies. DECEMBER 08, 2025 / 3:40PM, LITE.OQ - Lumentum Holdings Inc at Raymond James TMT and Consumer Conference

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : I'll paraphrase Gary Smith's comment which is optics are cool again.

Question: Simon Leopold - Raymond James - Analyst : Thank you very much, Mike. Thanks, everybody.