Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 17, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does NotCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Thus far in November, leveraged loan borrowing seems much livelier than bond offerings, begin on page 11. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 11Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh OK Week for US, Better for Europe.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Italy, jolt, Trumponomics, Lebanon, inflation, defaults, Italy, shareholders, DB, Saudi, M&A, subpar, Thailand, BP plc, UK, Allstate, ratings, OPEC. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 133 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 511 bp, it may approximate 545 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after October 2016s 5.6%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 4.1% by the summer of 2017. Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 4.1% to a record $1.393 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -6.3% to $331 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 david.munves@moodys.com John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 john.lonski@moodys.com Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 benjamin.garber@moodys.com Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 njundu.sanneh@moodys.com Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 yukyung.choi@moodys.com Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 irina.baron@moodys.com Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 franklin.kim@moodys.com Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404 Xian.li@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Jack.chambers@moodys.com Syed Faraz +61 (2) 9270-8146 Syed.faraz@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comEditors note: The Weekly Market Outlook will not be published next week, owing to the US Thanksgiving Day nat...