Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research

Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research)

Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research) - Moody's Capital Markets Research
Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research)
Published Nov 17, 2016
23 pages — Published Nov 17, 2016
Price US$ 750.00  |  Buy this Report Now

About This Report


WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOKNOVEMBER 17, 2016CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCHMoodys Analytics markets and distributes all Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc. materials. Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc is a subsidiary of Moodys Corporation. Moodys Analytics does not provide investment advisory services or products. For further detail, please see the last page.Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does NotCredit Markets Review and Outlook by John Lonski Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 2The Week Ahead We preview economic reports and forecasts from the US, UK/Europe, and Asia/Pacific regions. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 5The Long View Check our chart here for forecast summaries of key credit market metrics. Full updated stories, Thus far in November, leveraged loan borrowing seems much livelier than bond offerings, begin on page 11. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 11Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh OK Week for US, Better for Europe.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 15Market Data Credit spreads, CDS movers, issuance.¯ FULL STORY PAGE 17Moodys Capital Markets Research recent publications Links to commentaries on: Italy, jolt, Trumponomics, Lebanon, inflation, defaults, Italy, shareholders, DB, Saudi, M&A, subpar, Thailand, BP plc, UK, Allstate, ratings, OPEC. ¯ FULL STORY PAGE 21Credit SpreadsInvestment Grade: Year-end 2016 spread to be close to its recent 133 bp. High Yield: After recent spread of 511 bp, it may approximate 545 bp by year-end 2016. Defaults US HY default rate: after October 2016s 5.6%, MoodysCredit Policy Group forecasts it near 4.1% by the summer of 2017. Issuance For 2016, US$-denominated IG bond issuance may increase by 4.1% to a record $1.393 trillion, while US$-priced high-yield bond issuance may sink by -6.3% to $331 billion.Click here for Moodys Credit Outlook, our sister publication containing Moodys rating agency analysis of recent news events, summaries of recent rating changes, and summaries of recent research.Moodys Capital Markets Research, Inc.Weekly Market Outlook Contributors: David W. Munves, CFA 1.212.553.2844 John Lonski 1.212.553.7144 Ben Garber 1.212.553.4732 Njundu Sanneh 1.212.553.4036 Yukyung Choi 1.212.553.0906 Irina Baron 1.212.553.4307 Franklin Kim 1.212.553.4419 Xian (Peter) Li1.212.553.1404's Analytics/Europe: Tomas Holinka +420 ( 221) 666-384 Tomas.holinka@moodys.comMoody's Analytics/Asia-Pacific: Jack Chambers +61 (2) 9270-8118 Syed Faraz +61 (2) 9270-8146 Syed.faraz@moodys.comEditor Dana Gordon 1.212.553.0398 dana.gordon@moodys.comEditors note: The Weekly Market Outlook will not be published next week, owing to the US Thanksgiving Day nat...

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TitleStarting PageNumber of Pages
The Week Ahead11
The Long View11
Ratings Round-Up by Njundu Sanneh11
OK Week for US, Better for Europe.11
Market Data11
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications11
Weekly Market Outlook Contributors:11
Credit Markets Review and Outlook23
  Spreads tend to narrow as inflation expectations rise21
  Treasury yields and spec-grade yields react differently to expected inflation22
  Food price deflation redux41
  Shelter costs may soon ease core CPI inflation41
The Week Ahead US, Europe, Asia-Pacific56
  THE US51
    Friday, November 1851
  Leading Economic Indicators October51
    Tuesday, November 2251
  Existing Home Sales October51
    Wednesday, November 2351
  Durable Goods Orders October51
  New Home Sales October51
  University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment November Final51
  FOMC Meeting Minutes61
    Thursday, November 1771
  France: Employment Situation (Q3; 8:00 a.m. GMT)71
  U.K.: Retail Sales (October; 9:30 a.m. GMT)71
  Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (October; 10:00 a.m. GMT)71
    Friday, November 1871
  Russia: Unemployment (October; 2:00 p.m. GMT)71
    Thursday, November 1781
  Australia Employment Situation October81
  Singapore Foreign Trade October81
  Philippines GDP 2016Q381
    Friday, November 1881
    Monday, November 2181
  Japan Foreign Trade October91
  Thailand GDP 2016Q391
    Tuesday, November 2291
    Wednesday, November 2391
  Taiwan Domestic Trade October91
  Taiwan Industrial Production October91
    Thursday, November 2491
  Hong Kong Foreign Trade October91
    Friday, November 2591
  Singapore GDP - Final 2016Q391
  South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index November101
  New Zealand Foreign Trade October101
  Japan Consumer Price Index October101
  Singapore Industrial Production October101
  Taiwan GDP 2016Q3101
The Long View114
  Credit spreads111
  The recent high-yield bond spread of 511 bp is somewhat less than what is predicted by the spread s macroeconomic drivers and the high-yield EDF metric, but it is wider than what might be inferred from a now below-trend VIX index. The implications for...111
  Through the first 46 weeks of 2016, US$-denominated corporate bond issuance showed year-over-year percent changes of a 4.1% increase for investment-grade and an -8.8% drop for high-yield. US economic outlook121
  Asia Pacific132
Ratings Round-Up151
Ratings Round-Up151
Ratings Round-Up161
Market Data174
Moody s Capital Markets Research recent publications213

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Moody's Capital Markets Research. "Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research)" Nov 17, 2016. Alacra Store. Sep 22, 2020. <>
Moody's Capital Markets Research. (2016). Treasuries See Inflation, Credit Does Not (Capital Markets Research) Nov 17, 2016. New York, NY: Alacra Store. Retrieved Sep 22, 2020 from <>
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