University of Dubuque, Iowa; Private Coll/Univ - General Obligation

S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook to negative from stable and affirmed its 'BBB' long-term rating on Iowa Higher Education Loan Authority's series 2011 private college facility revenue refunding bonds, issued on behalf of University of Dubuque (UD). The negative outlook reflects our view that the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic fallout could materially pressure the University of Dubuque's enrollment and financial profiles. While the university anticipates that its operating performance in the current fiscal year will not be affected due to offsetting factors, we believe the university's history of deficit operating performance on a full-accrual basis offers little flexibility for unexpected enrollment pressure or weakened net tuition revenue. In addition, the university plans to increase its reliance on short-term

...students, which make up less than 5% of its total head count. In fiscal 2019, auxiliary revenue comprised approximately 2.2% of adjusted operating revenue, which we believe represents a manageable part of the college's revenue mix. UD is currently planning several scenarios for the fall 2020 enrollment cycle (fiscal 2021), which details have yet to be finalized. If the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic continues beyond the immediate near term, and the longer the student body remains off campus, this could influence fiscal 2021 results. The university anticipates fall 2020 enrollment levels will hold relatively steady, as many college-age students will want to stay local, and many non-traditional students may look to higher education during a recession; its deposits are up about 12% compared to last year and first-year enrollments are also up. While the university anticipates relatively steady enrollment, we believe there is some uncertainty with fall 2020 enrollment; especially since the...

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