Strong franchise in Italy, Germany, Austria, and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). High level of geographic diversification. Sound and well-balanced funding base. Significant business and credit exposure in higher-risk countries than international peers. Likely rise in nonperforming exposures and credit losses amid a COVID-19-induced recession. Modest profitability prospects. The negative outlook on UniCredit SpA primarily indicates increased pressure on revenue and asset quality, and significant downside risks S&P Global Ratings sees to its base-case expectations over the next two years. We could lower the rating if economic and operating conditions have materially deteriorated, implying far more negative effects on the organization's credit metrics compared with our current expectations. In particular, a downgrade could follow if the bank's projected risk-adjusted capital
