...A possible shallow recession in 2023 would result in a more normalized EBITDA for ArcelorMittal after its exceptional results in 2021 and 2022. Economic indicators released in early 2023 make us believe that the likelihood of a steep economic downturn has reduced. In the steel industry, we saw early signs of recovery in demand and prices, following weak conditions at the end of 2022. We now expect these somewhat better conditions to persist in the coming quarters of this year. That said, we think downside risks remain, especially in Europe, where external factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and high energy prices cloud recovery in European steel demand. We anticipate ArcelorMittal's underlying EBITDA will subside in 2023 and reach $7 billion-$8 billion, in line with our expectations during normal industry conditions. The company posted underlying EBITDA of $14.2 billion in 2022. The company's balanced financial policy should support the rating, even if industry conditions are weaker....
