Summary: Angola

We expect President Lourenco and his administration to continue to press ahead with reforms to the business environment, after already implementing some reforms and having signed a program with the IMF in 2018. We estimate that real economic activity contracted by 1.7% in 2018, driven by a decline in both oil production and the non-oil economy, as well as a sharp exchange-rate depreciation, after contractions of 2.6% in 2016 and 0.1% in 2017. However, the IMF-funded program, alongside the administration's economic and governance reforms, should help growth rebound and average 1.8% per year in 2019-2022. Angola's debt stock is high and debt ratios have been affected by the liberalization and consequent sharp depreciation of the exchange rate in 2018. We

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile + We expect President Lourenco and his administration to continue to press ahead with reforms to the business environment, after already implementing some reforms and having signed a program with the IMF in 2018. + We estimate that real economic activity contracted by 1.7% in 2018, driven by a decline in both oil production and the non-oil economy, as well as a sharp exchange-rate depreciation, after contractions of 2.6% in 2016 and 0.1% in 2017. However, the IMF-funded program, alongside the administration's economic and governance reforms, should help growth rebound and average 1.8% per year in 2019-2022. + Angola's debt stock is high and debt ratios have been affected by the liberalization and consequent sharp depreciation of the exchange rate in 2018. We expect further debt accumulation to moderate as the government limits new debt accumulation and controls fiscal deficits. More gradual depreciation should also help....

Summary