Angola

We expect President Lourenco and his administration to continue to press ahead with significant economic reforms. Nevertheless, we estimate that real economic activity contracted for the fourth year in a row in 2019, by 1.1%. This was partly because of oil production outages, as well as sharp exchange-rate depreciation. Angola's IMF-funded program (the second review of which was successfully completed in December 2019) alongside the administration's economic and governance reforms should see growth rebound and average 1.9% per year in 2020-2023. Angola's gross general government debt stock rose above 100% of GDP in 2019, partly on the continued liberalization and consequent sharp depreciation of the exchange rate. We expect further debt accumulation to moderate as the government controls fiscal deficits

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile + We expect President Lourenco and his administration to continue to press ahead with significant economic reforms. Nevertheless, we estimate that real economic activity contracted for the fourth year in a row in 2019, by 1.1%. This was partly because of oil production outages, as well as sharp exchange-rate depreciation. + Angola's IMF-funded program (the second review of which was successfully completed in December 2019) alongside the administration's economic and governance reforms should see growth rebound and average 1.9% per year in 2020-2023. + Angola's gross general government debt stock rose above 100% of GDP in 2019, partly on the continued liberalization and consequent sharp depreciation of the exchange rate. We expect further debt accumulation to moderate as the government controls fiscal deficits amid a more gradual currency depreciation. + Weak oil prices and persistent issues with oil production volumes...

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