Rwanda

Growth momentum will remain strong, mainly due to robust investment levels of above 20% of GDP. The political landscape remains dominated by President Paul Kagame and his political party, which has provided political and institutional stability. However, decision making is centralized and succession processes are uncertain and untested. We estimate that real GDP growth peaked in 2019 at an estimated 9.5%, and will average a still-strong 7.7% annually over 2020-2023. Higher government spending will spur relatively large fiscal and current account deficits. Although on an upward trajectory, we expect government debt levels will remain moderate compared with peers' and debt-servicing costs will stay relatively low. We expect that the current account deficit (CAD) will average about 10% of GDP over

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Growth momentum will remain strong, mainly due to robust investment levels of above 20% of GDP. + The political landscape remains dominated by President Paul Kagame and his political party, which has provided political and institutional stability. + However, decision making is centralized and succession processes are uncertain and untested. + We estimate that real GDP growth peaked in 2019 at an estimated 9.5%, and will average a still-strong 7.7% annually over 2020-2023. Higher government spending will spur relatively large fiscal and current account deficits. + Although on an upward trajectory, we expect government debt levels will remain moderate compared with peers' and debt-servicing costs will stay relatively low. + We expect that the current account deficit (CAD) will average about 10% of GDP over 2019-2023, mainly due to an import-heavy construction projects pipeline. + External financing needs will peak in 2023...

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