The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a sharp deterioration in Rwanda's economic activity, and we expect real per capita GDP will remain broadly flat in 2020. We expect large twin deficits to result in a substantial increase in general government and external debt levels. A sharper than expected reduction of exports, tourism flows, or inward remittances could further increase external leverage. Consequently, we are revising our outlook on Rwanda to negative from stable and affirming the 'B+/B' ratings. On Aug. 7, 2020, S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Rwanda to negative from stable due to higher public debt and the deteriorating external outlook. At the same time, we affirmed our 'B+' long-term and 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings on Rwanda.
