Thailand's economy will likely moderate over the next 12 months amid uncertainty in external and domestic policy. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, compared with 2.5% in 2024. The government's supportive fiscal stance will provide some short-term cushion for the economy amid heightened policy uncertainty. Net accumulation of debt will average just above 3% of GDP annually. We affirmed our 'BBB+/A-2' foreign currency and 'A-/A-2' local currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Thailand. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. On Nov. 13, 2025, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term foreign currency, and its 'A-' long-term and 'A-2' short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings on Thailand.
