...- We expect a pronounced hit to the Mexican economy following the combined shocks of COVID-19--in Mexico itself and in the U.S., its main trading partner--and lower global oil prices. - These shocks, while temporary, will worsen already weak trend GDP growth dynamics for 2020-2023 that reflect, in part, low private-sector confidence and poor investment dynamics. - We are lowering our long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Mexico to '###' from '###+' and our long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to '###+' from 'A-'. - The outlook is negative, indicating the risks of a downgrade over the coming 12-24 months as a result of uneven or ineffective policy execution; potential weakening in public finances, reflecting a difficult trade-off between sustaining GDP growth given Mexico's low non-oil tax base and spending rigidities; and rising pressure on PEMEX, a potential contingent liability for the sovereign....
