Bulletin: Mexico's Proposed Budget Is Broadly Consistent With Our Fiscal Assumptions

NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Sept. 13, 2019--The Mexican government sent various documents to Congress this week--namely its General Economic Policy Guidelines and its Revenue Law and Expenditure Budget for 2020. Overall, the government's projection of a public-sector borrowing requirement of 2.6% of GDP for 2020, after 2.7% in 2019, (with targeted primary surpluses of 0.7% and 1.0% of GDP, respectively) and debt of 45%-46% of GDP are broadly in line with S&P Global Ratings' current fiscal expectations. We have assumed general government deficits would average 2.7% of GDP and net general government debt would average 43% of GDP in 2020-2022. In general, we assume real GDP growth of about 2% on average over the forecast horizon of 2020-2022, versus

...September 13, 2019 NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Sept. 13, 2019--The Mexican government sent various documents to Congress this week--namely its General Economic Policy Guidelines and its Revenue Law and Expenditure Budget for 2020. Overall, the government's projection of a public-sector borrowing requirement of 2.6% of GDP for 2020, after 2.7% in 2019, (with targeted primary surpluses of 0.7% and 1.0% of GDP, respectively) and debt of 45%-46% of GDP are broadly in line with S&P Global Ratings' current fiscal expectations. We have assumed general government deficits would average 2.7% of GDP and net general government debt would average 43% of GDP in 2020-2022. In general, we assume real GDP growth of about 2% on average over the forecast horizon of 2020-2022, versus growth closer to 1% this year. We update our forecasts for growth (and other macroeconomic variables) quarterly, jointly with our economics team. Estimates for 2019 and 2020 are subject to revision after our upcoming third-quarter...

Bulletin