France-based nursing homes operator Colisée Group will report operating performance significantly below our expectations for 2024, undermined by pressure on the cost base. We now estimate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA will land well above 10x with free operating cash flow (FOCF) after lease payments remaining largely negative this year. The group?s shareholders recently appointed a new management team to turn Colisée?s operations around and restore profitability throughout 2025. We consider that this turnaround plan carries execution risks, and now forecast leverage will stay elevated over the next 12-18 months, postponing credit metric recovery to beyond 2025. Therefore, we revised our outlook on Colisée Group to negative from stable and affirmed our 'B-' issuer credit rating on the company
