National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd.

The stable outlook on NCBJ reflects that on Jamaica, which in turn reflects our expectation that the sovereign will continue to prioritize conservative macroeconomic policy amid a low growth environment. We assume the low fiscal surpluses will underpin a decline in debt over the next one-two years. Furthermore, we expect tourism will support external balances and growth, despite a weaker global backdrop. We could lower our ratings on the bank if we were to take the same action on Jamaica. We could also downgrade NCBJ if were to revise downward its SACP by two notches to 'b', which is not part of our base-case scenario at this point. We could upgrade the bank if we take the same action on

...The bank retains good intrinsic creditworthiness, but its exposure to the sovereign still limits the ratings. National Commercial Bank Jamaica Ltd.'s (NCBJ's) stand-alone credit profile (SACP) remains '##-'. However, we limit the ratings on the bank by those on Jamaica (B+/Stable/B) because of the sovereign influence on the bank's credit profile, given its large exposure to the country in the form of loans and investments. NCBJ maintains a strong market position as the largest bank in Jamaica, along with its diversified businesses and stable revenues. NCBJ is the leading bank on the island, holding about a third of the banking industry's market share in the last few years. The bank provides a wide range of banking products and services. The bank's asset quality has been improving since 2022 thanks to the rebound of most of the economic sectors after the hit from the pandemic, but challenging global scenario still poses risks in 2023. NCBJ's nonperforming assets (NPAs)...

Full Report