NatWest Group PLC

The stable outlook indicates that we expect NWG's credit profile to remain robust over our two-year horizon. We anticipate that its earnings will remain strong and it will maintain solid funding and liquidity profiles. We could lower the ratings if macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical uncertainties appear likely to challenge NWG's asset quality and earnings materially, or ongoing economic volatility undermines the broad stability of the U.K. banking and financial system. An upgrade is unlikely in the next 24 months. We could raise the ratings during our two-year outlook horizon if NatWest maintains a risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio comfortably above 10% while continuing to deliver stable, peer-leading profitability. We view this as remote given that our base case is for the

...NWG's successful franchise, strong earnings outlook, and resilient balance sheet underpin our rating. The group's deep and broad U.K. banking franchise, disciplined strategic execution, and cautious risk appetite translate into significant financial resilience and support our rating. NWG is a strongly performing national champion bank, with a robust earnings outlook and cautious risk appetite. The group's business position is strong. Its leading U.K. commercial business, focused U.K. investment banking franchise, and primarily secured retail book, with an expanding prime mortgage book at its heart, leave the group's franchise on a solid strategic footing. The group's deep, stable, and efficiently run U.K. universal banking franchise supports a solid earnings outlook. Overall, we forecast that the group will maintain a return on tangible equity of 14.5%-15.5% in 2023 and 2024....

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