Iraq

Iraq's complex and volatile political situation limits policy predictability. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in October 2021, but significant institutional challenges will likely hamper meaningful reform by the incoming government. Iraq has a hydrocarbon-dependent economy, is the second-largest oil exporter in the OPEC, and one of the largest oil exporters in the world. We expect slow economic recovery in 2021, but that growth will average about 3% a year over 2022-2024 because of increasing oil production as the OPEC+ cuts taper. Sizable foreign exchange reserves support Iraq's external debt-servicing capabilities. The current account will return to a surplus this year thanks to higher oil prices, strengthening the reserve position compared with year-end 2020. Spending pressure remains high, but

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Iraq's complex and volatile political situation limits policy predictability. + Parliamentary elections are scheduled to take place in October 2021, but significant institutional challenges will likely hamper meaningful reform by the incoming government. + Iraq has a hydrocarbon-dependent economy, is the second-largest oil exporter in the OPEC, and one of the largest oil exporters in the world. + We expect slow economic recovery in 2021, but that growth will average about 3% a year over 2022-2024 because of increasing oil production as the OPEC+ cuts taper. Sizable foreign exchange reserves support Iraq's external debt-servicing capabilities. + The current account will return to a surplus this year thanks to higher oil prices, strengthening the reserve position compared with year-end 2020. + Spending pressure remains high, but the fiscal balance will be contained this year because of higher oil prices and restrained...

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