Iraq

Increasing oil production will support growth, as nonoil activity remains constrained. The security situation in Iraq deteriorated over 2019 as heightened tensions in the region spilled over and the intensity of anti-government protests increased. Iraq's institutional profile will remain weak, with a divided society and unpredictable policymaking. Nevertheless, S&P Global Ratings estimates that the economy expanded by 2.8% in 2019 and will see 3.8% growth in 2020 on the back of increasing oil production. Although the current account should remain in surplus, we expect fiscal deficits to continue. We expect the 2020 budget to be in line with 2019's expansionary policy, albeit with restrained capital expenditure (capex). The current account should stay in surplus over the forecast period, with Iraq's

...Institutional and economic profile Flexibility and performance profile Increasing oil production will support growth, as nonoil activity remains constrained. + The security situation in Iraq deteriorated over 2019 as heightened tensions in the region spilled over and the intensity of anti-government protests increased. + Iraq's institutional profile will remain weak, with a divided society and unpredictable policymaking. + Nevertheless, S&P Global Ratings estimates that the economy expanded by 2.8% in 2019 and will see 3.8% growth in 2020 on the back of increasing oil production. Although the current account should remain in surplus, we expect fiscal deficits to continue. + We expect the 2020 budget to be in line with 2019's expansionary policy, albeit with restrained capital expenditure (capex). + The current account should stay in surplus over the forecast period, with Iraq's liquid external assets slightly exceeding its external debt. + We expect the Iraqi dinar will remain pegged to...

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