...iPhone revenues have declined three consecutive quarters on a year-over-year basis. We forecast they will decline by about the mid-teens percent in fiscal 2019 after growing 18% in fiscal 2018, driven mostly by lower unit shipments and relatively flat average selling prices (ASPs). We forecast iPhone sales will decline again near the mid-single digits in fiscal 2020 based on our expectation for flat unit shipments and modestly lower ASPs. Consumers have been holding on to their phones longer and slowing upgrades in the absence of a major phone redesign. With Apple likely to launch 5G-enabled phones in late 2020, we believe consumers may choose to wait even further to upgrade their aging phones. Should the U.S. implement the proposed 15% tariff on List 4 products from China, which would include smartphones and notebooks, this would further dampen demand for iPhones unless Apple absorbs the higher cost. Lastly, we believe continuing trade conflict with China will have a meaningfully negative...
