Moody's update on EU Sovereign calendar issuers

Moody's changes Nigeria's outlook to positive, affirms Caa1 ratings - Rating Action – 2023/12/08 – US$ 180.00 – ...MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS, AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY RETAIL INVESTORS AND IT WOULD BE RECKLESS AND INAPPROPRIATE FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO USE MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS OR PUBLICATIONS WHEN MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION. IF IN DOUBT YOU SHOULD CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY LAW, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, COPYRIGHT LAW, AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. MOODY'S CREDIT RATINGS, ASSESSMENTS, OTHER OPINIONS AND PUBLICATIONS ARE NOT INTENDED FOR USE BY ANY PERSON AS A BENCHMARK AS THAT TERM IS DEFINED FOR REGULATORY PURPOSES AND MUST NOT BE USED IN ANY WAY THAT...

Government of Nigeria: Nigeria's electricity outages risk undermining growth - Issuer Comment – 2023/09/25 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 19 September, Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) national electrical grid collapsed for the second time in a week after an initial nationwide outage on 14 September. The collapses were Nigeria's first major power outages since mid-2022, but the chronic lack of reliability and inadequacy of the electricity supply because of low generation capacity and poor transmission infrastructure remains a pervasive constraint on growth. Nigeria's economy grew by 2.5% year over year in the first half of this year, down from 3.3% full-year growth in 2022. Should incidences of power outages recur, the acute effect on businesses and households could slow economic growth over the coming months. The World Bank estimated the economic losses due to unreliable energy supply in Nigeria at 5%-7% of GDP annually...

Nigeria, Government of: Central banks newly reported foreign-exchange liabilities weaken reserve adequacy - Issuer Comment – 2023/08/18 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 11 August, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) published audited financial statements for 2016-22 in which it disclosed foreign-currency liabilities of around NGN6.6 trillion ($14.2 billion) at year-end 2022 (using the 2022 year-end exchange rate of NGN460 vs. USD). The audited annual statements were the first since 2016. Although loan arrangement details are insufficient to determine the extent to which they comprise calls on the CBN's foreign reserves, the reports suggest that some of its loans were used to bolster Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) foreign exchange reserves. Should this be the case, and given the liabilities' short tenure, our assessment of Nigeria's foreign-exchange reserve adequacy would weaken. Loans collaterized by securities that are not classified as external reserves, or any accounting treatments of these loans that would result in a proportionate fall (all else being equal) in foreign exchange reserves at maturity, would be netted off from gross reserves (excluding gold...

Nigeria, Government of: Foreign exchange rate unification, naira devaluation aim to address long-standing weaknesses, but carry risks - Issuer Comment – 2023/06/19 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 14 June, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced the unification of its multiple foreign exchange windows, merging all official rates into its Investors and Exporters window, along with a more market-driven mechanism for determining the exchange rate. The moves effectively mean that the CBN has devalued the currency, which traded at NGN664 to the US dollar at the end of the day, a 28% devaluation from a day earlier, accoding to FMDQ Securities Exchange. Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) President Bola Tinubu signaled the policy changes in his inaugural address on 29 May, and they follow the suspension of former CBN governor Godwin Emefiele on 9 June. The changes come with short-term risk. A devaluation is inflationary, and the extent of the devaluation ¡ and therefore the associated inflationary pressure ¡ has yet to be tested. Assuming the naira weakens to the parallel market rate of NGN750 to the dollar, this would imply a 37% devaluation. Such a fall in the currency's value would have a...

Government of Nigeria Caa1 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2023/06/14 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile reflects increasing debt service challenges. The government's small revenue base and very weak institutional and governance framework are long-standing, mutually self-reinforcing credit constraints. Against this background, monetary tightening and depressed domestic oil production have seen Nigeria's fiscal position deteriorate. We expect interest payments will consume almost 40% of general government revenue in the medium term. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy, supported by strong domestic demand potential, while an opportunity presents for the new administration to deliver on reform promises to address long-standing policy challenges....

Government of Nigeria: New presidents readiness to confront policy dilemma is credit positive, but risky - Issuer Comment – 2023/06/01 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 29 May, Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) new president Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his inaugural address reaffirmed his administration's key policy goals of unifying the central bank foreign exchange rates and ending the oil-producing nation's decades-old oil subsidy. The president's readiness to confront these long-standing issues is credit positive. The oil subsidy has been costly and favors relatively wealthier households while having more than one central bank exchange rate for the naira (the main one for exporters and investors, and other specialized ones) deters investment and economic growth. However, both initiatives are politically risky for Tinubu, who has a fragile mandate after winning only 8.8 million votes in a country with 93.5 million eligible voters. Both reforms would trigger a transitional period of higher inflation: eliminating the oil subsidy would raise oil prices and unifying the central bank's foreign currency exchange rate would almost certainly weaken the naira. In Nigeria's...

Nigeria, Government of: Nigeria eases interest burden with securitization of central bank debt - Issuer Comment – 2023/05/10 – US$ 200.00 – ...We estimate central bank advances from total claims on the central government on the central bank's balance sheet. Source: Moody's Investors Service and Haver Analytics...

Government of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challenges - Issuer Comment – 2023/03/03 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 1 March, Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) electoral commission declared Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (ACP) party the winner of presidential elections held on 25-26 February. President-elect Tinubu won 37% of the popular vote, while opponents Atiku Abubakar won 29% of the popular vote and Peter Obi won 25%. The losing candidates have contested the results amid media reports of technical problems, electoral fraud and voter intimidation. Legal challenges to the election outcome are credit negative because they may delay the formation of a functioning government that can address Nigeria's pressing credit challenges and could lead to social unrest. Had the election been undisputed, the earliest that Tinubu would have been sworn into office and formed a government would have been the end of May. But that timeline may now be significantly stretched. In the meantime, we project the fiscal deficit will continue to widen to 6.8% of GDP this year from 6% in 2022 - and well above the...

Government of Nigeria Caa1 stable: Update following downgrade to Caa1, outlook stable - Credit Opinion – 2023/01/27 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile reflects increasing debt service challenges. The government's small revenue base and very weak institutional and governance framework are long-standing, mutually self-reinforcing credit constraints. Against this background, monetary tightening and depressed domestic oil production have seen Nigeria's fiscal position deteriorate. We expect interest payments will consume about half of general government revenue in the medium term, from 35% in 2022. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy, supported by strong domestic demand potential....

Moody's downgrades Nigeria's ratings to Caa1 with a stable outlook, concluding its review - Rating Action – 2023/01/27 – US$ 180.00 – ...Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Nigeria's ratings to Caa1 with a stable outlook, concluding its review...