Government of Nigeria Caa1 stable: Update following downgrade to Caa1, outlook stable

Government of Nigeria Caa1 stable: Regular update - Credit Opinion – 2023/06/14 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile reflects increasing debt service challenges. The government's small revenue base and very weak institutional and governance framework are long-standing, mutually self-reinforcing credit constraints. Against this background, monetary tightening and depressed domestic oil production have seen Nigeria's fiscal position deteriorate. We expect interest payments will consume almost 40% of general government revenue in the medium term. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy, supported by strong domestic demand potential, while an opportunity presents for the new administration to deliver on reform promises to address long-standing policy challenges....

Moody's update on EU Sovereign calendar issuers - Announcement – 2023/06/09 – US$ 180.00

Government of Nigeria: New presidents readiness to confront policy dilemma is credit positive, but risky - Issuer Comment – 2023/06/01 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 29 May, Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) new president Bola Ahmed Tinubu in his inaugural address reaffirmed his administration's key policy goals of unifying the central bank foreign exchange rates and ending the oil-producing nation's decades-old oil subsidy. The president's readiness to confront these long-standing issues is credit positive. The oil subsidy has been costly and favors relatively wealthier households while having more than one central bank exchange rate for the naira (the main one for exporters and investors, and other specialized ones) deters investment and economic growth. However, both initiatives are politically risky for Tinubu, who has a fragile mandate after winning only 8.8 million votes in a country with 93.5 million eligible voters. Both reforms would trigger a transitional period of higher inflation: eliminating the oil subsidy would raise oil prices and unifying the central bank's foreign currency exchange rate would almost certainly weaken the naira. In Nigeria's...

Nigeria, Government of: Nigeria eases interest burden with securitization of central bank debt - Issuer Comment – 2023/05/10 – US$ 200.00 – ...We estimate central bank advances from total claims on the central government on the central bank's balance sheet. Source: Moody's Investors Service and Haver Analytics...

Government of Nigeria: Election disputes will delay policies to address Nigeria's pressing credit challenges - Issuer Comment – 2023/03/03 – US$ 200.00 – ...On 1 March, Nigeria's (Caa1 stable) electoral commission declared Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (ACP) party the winner of presidential elections held on 25-26 February. President-elect Tinubu won 37% of the popular vote, while opponents Atiku Abubakar won 29% of the popular vote and Peter Obi won 25%. The losing candidates have contested the results amid media reports of technical problems, electoral fraud and voter intimidation. Legal challenges to the election outcome are credit negative because they may delay the formation of a functioning government that can address Nigeria's pressing credit challenges and could lead to social unrest. Had the election been undisputed, the earliest that Tinubu would have been sworn into office and formed a government would have been the end of May. But that timeline may now be significantly stretched. In the meantime, we project the fiscal deficit will continue to widen to 6.8% of GDP this year from 6% in 2022 - and well above the...

Moody's downgrades Nigeria's ratings to Caa1 with a stable outlook, concluding its review - Rating Action – 2023/01/27 – US$ 180.00 – ...Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Nigeria's ratings to Caa1 with a stable outlook, concluding its review...

Government of Nigeria - B3 review for downgrade: Annual credit analysis - Issuer In-Depth – 2022/12/14 – US$ 750.00 – ...The credit profile of Nigeria reflects very low government revenue, including from the oil sector, which is a key credit weakness. Authorities tightly regulate a large part of prices and broader operating conditions. The stakes are significant because of the otherwise huge potential related to the country's large natural or capital resource endowment. Nigeria's deep institutional weaknesses, including low revenue bases, have been mutually self-reinforcing. While not strictly constraining the country's economic development, the recent drop in oil production and global monetary tightening have magnified these issues. Nigeria's key metrics are favourable, with our forecast for government debt/GDP at only 35% as of year-end 2022. However, distorted prices often flatter these metrics and these metrics will deteriorate in line with negative "flow" data. At 35%, the share of general government revenue consumed by interest payments limits the sovereign's capacity to support the social and economic...

Government of Nigeria B3 RUR-: Update following methodology update - Credit Opinion – 2022/12/14 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is constrained by fiscal and external reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, which has yielded relatively low revenue recently, the government's small revenue base, a very weak institutional and governance framework and a fractious political landscape. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy, supported by strong domestic demand potential....

Government of Nigeria B3 RUR-: Update following rating downgrade to B3 and initiation of review for further downgrade - Credit Opinion – 2022/10/22 – US$ 250.00 – ...Nigeria's credit profile is constrained by fiscal and external reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, which has yielded relatively low revenue recently, the government's small revenue base, a very weak institutional and governance framework and a fractious political landscape. Credit strengths include the country's large and diversified economy, supported by strong domestic demand potential....

Moody's downgrades Nigeria's rating to B3 from B2 and places it on review for downgrade - Rating Action – 2022/10/21 – US$ 180.00 – ...Rating Action: Moody's downgrades Nigeria's rating to B3 from B2 and places it on review for downgrade...