...Container Growth Tapers Off: The European container ports industry grew strongly for a long period at 6.5% each year on average since 1985. EU container throughput growth averaged 3x-4x times GDP growth over this period. More than half of the value of goods transported on sea is now carried in containers. Fitch Ratings believes it is unlikely that this rate of growth seen in past decades will be sustained, as containerisation is reaching maturity. Moderate Growth Assumptions: Fitch therefore uses moderate growth assumptions for projections underlying its rating cases. On a sector basis and for each individual port, the drivers of containerisation are critical because the magnitude and pace of containerisation shape two key rating factors for ports, volume and price. Extrapolating past growth patterns into the future would lead to overoptimistic projections. Differentiated Assumptions: Fitch will use more conservative assumptions for ports exposed to higher competition, notably mid-sized...
