...Ratings Could Delink from Sovereign: Although Ecopetrol S.A.'s ratings are linked to Colombia's sovereign, given the strategic importance for the country, a rating action independent of one of the sovereign could take place. An increase in leverage beyond Fitch Ratings' expectations (e.g. above 3.0x), weak operating performance resulting in a sustained production-to-reserves level below five years, and/or a sharp and extended commodity price downturn could result in negative actions. Balance Sheet Pressured: Ecopetrol's historically sound balance sheet is expected to be under pressure due to the effect lower international oil prices will have on its cash flow generation, coupled with funding needs for capex. Ecopetrol's leverage, as measured by total debt to EBITDA, may reach 3x during 2015 under Fitch's revised Brent price deck of USD55 per barrel for 2015. An average Brent price of USD40 per barrel during 2015 would increase Ecopetrol's leverage to around 4.0x and could lead to a negative...
