...A Slow-Paced Economy: After a challenging 2014, economic growth is expected to remain subdued. Inflationary pressures have eased, but the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to tighten monetary policy and moderately raise interest rates in 2015 and 2016. Due to its large current account deficit (CAD), South Africa remains vulnerable to a downward shift in global liquidity and risk sentiment. Low living standards for large parts of the population present a long-term risk to social and political stability. Mixed Prospects for Household Credit: Unsecured credit lending is now contracting; the sector continues to be hampered by the removal of adverse credit information from credit bureaux, coupled with the default of African Bank Investments Limited (ABIL). While unexpectedly dynamic in this sluggish environment, mortgage lending may have benefitted from the large clearance of defaulted loan books over recent the years. We believe mortgage lending will grow moderately in 2015. Effects...
