Q4 2024 Outokumpu Oyj Pre-Silent Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe first on the guidance. Just to clarify, So there will be some timing losses that you guided for back in Q3. But on top of that, you'll see also an inventory negative impact in Q4. Are you able to quantify that impact of the inventory? And I believe this is largely due to the nickel [fueling]. Is that correct?

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Okay. So the hedging loss and the raw material loss, that's the reason why you could still be either breakeven or negative a bit in Q4. Is that fair?

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Okay. And just to follow-up on the net set guidance is slight -- right slightly or up. Was that slightly up quarter on quarter? Just to confirm on the CapEx guidance and change and any other cash elements you would point for Q4 and would you still expect a mid- to double digit? I think that's how you characterize the working capital release in Q4. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies.

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Okay. So still -- but you -- you're still going to see a working capital release in Q4. Is that fair?

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : In the fourth quarter, would you still see a working capital release?

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Okay. That's very helpful, thank you. And last question for me. I mean, since Q3, obviously, Trump has met some threats about tariffs and notably Mexico, I think, we touched on last earning call. But if you can maybe from your angle now, the flows between Mexico, how would that potentially impact your business? And have you started to address, I don't know, the US administration or the Mexican administration to see if there's some room of maneuver there. But interested to have you saw on the Mexican US border situation into the coming months.

Question: Tristan Gresser - BNP Paribas Exane - Analyst : Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate the answers to my question. Thank you.

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : Yeah. Hi, good afternoon, all. Thanks for taking my question. My first question is actually on the market situation and actually maybe starting off with Europe here. So, I mean, obviously you've been going through the high level drivers of why the market is weak. But I'm more curious like what it specifically has been the demand throughout the fourth quarter. I mean, when we look at famous transaction prices, it seems like after having seen a bit of a recovery move, I would say for the last couple of couple of months, I guess the November prices have started to slip. So I mean, are you seeing that really, there has been like a very strong sort of change in trend throughout November into December now that the market has after actually stabilizing, maybe recovering again, like feed it and actually corrected strongly in Europe. Is that what you have perceived as well? And if so, what do you think has been driving this? Would it just be general cautiousness, and again, de-stocking or what has the situation been? That's my first question.

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : Okay. Got it. And sorry, I'm not sure. I probably caught you earlier. Do you already see any signs or at least a small rebound into Q1 in your sort of early Q1 order book, or is it just too early to say?

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : Got you. Okay. Understood. Okay. And then, just again, like walking through the bit, I mean, if you -- so I guess, we look at the situation in terms of also the change guidance, I guess the European standard operations will obviously be probably like barely break even if most likely negative, maybe even if we back out the maintenance item. And I guess, the fact that [Tony], obviously, as one of the most competitive, if not, most competitive asset in Europe, the fact that is not profitable on a cash basis, it's obviously very worrying. So are imports part of the issue here as well or is it really mostly domestic demand?

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : And when you look at the, I guess, the initiatives now launched in Europe yesterday to potentially tighten the safeguard measures, is this something you're banking on in terms of at least fixing the import gate? Or is there anything else which makes you a little bit more comfortable on the European side with regards to import? Because again, when we look at Europe, in principle, you like you could call it 3.5 big players. And there is a market issue, but certainly, I think it's a reasonably consolidated market. So I'm wondering, do you think that the safeguard tightening would potentially help you?

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : And then last question. I mean, when you look at the demand side, I guess we've been taking of a big step down, clearly part of that has been a cyclical element. Part of that will also be, again, the stocking has been de-stocking. But I guess, the question is, how far is that is actually structural? And I guess, there have been more articles suggesting that of the parts of this also maybe are possibly of structural nature. Do you see any examples in your -- among your customers? And if so which end market where you really think that this could be really a structural softening with the maybe demand, maybe not coming back?

Question: Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank - Analyst : Okay, understood. Great. Thanks so much.

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Yeah, good afternoon. So first question is on currently times. Can you discuss then tell us how long they are currently because I mean, it's a bit hard to understand the profit funding in the sense that when you did the guidance, it was already end of October considering there are like four to six weeks of lead times. I mean, we should have had the impact only in terms of sales. I mean, only from early or mid-December, but yet, the investment has been quite steep. So can you can you talk us through this these elements?

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Okay. And can you give us more color on the various and market? Do you see this weakness in the UN market more driven by the consumer good size of your business or rather by the capital good side?

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : And do you see your advanced grades actually resisting better than the rest of the portfolio? Not necessarily so?

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Yeah. Do you see your, I mean, talking again about the sectors and end markets. Do you see your advanced categories, advanced grades are performing better resisting more than the rest of the portfolio? REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies.

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Okay. No, that's fair. And just the last one on fair, we see prices drifting down. And what should we take of the weakness here? Do you think it's due to the contamination from weak Chinese prices or is it rather due to loss and still human in Europe? I heard that there was also more South African production the market. So what's your view on the dynamics here?

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Okay. And on this topic particularly, are you able to provide the share of your production where you can get a green premium? Is it is it basically broad-based on what the whole --

Question: Maxime Kogge - ODDO BHF Securities - Analyst : Okay. That's helpful. All right. That's it all. Thanks for the precise answer.

Question: Igor Tubic - Carnegie Investment Bank AG - Analyst : Thank you, operator, and thank you for the presentation. I just wonder, can you share anything more about your end markets and give some more color about what segments -- do you have been deteriorated more in Europe compared to what you expected? Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies.

Question: Igor Tubic - Carnegie Investment Bank AG - Analyst : Okay. And can I just ask you -- can you just help me to understand what's included in the heavy industries that you have in your annual report? Is it trucks and yellow goods or what's included in there?

Question: Igor Tubic - Carnegie Investment Bank AG - Analyst : Okay, thank you. That was all for me.