Eli Lilly and Co Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

The following is excerpted from the question-and-answer section of the transcript.

Question: Tim Anderson - BofA Global Research - Analyst : Thanks so much. Just a question on the guidance -- the 2025 guidance. So I think everyone knows the prescription uptake trend didn't show acceleration, hasn't shown it yet. That's been viewed by some as a concern. Does the 2025 guidance require acceleration? Or can you get their scripts just to continue on the same trajectory and the slope of that line doesn't change? When I do back-of-the-envelope math, it seems like that's frankly all that needs to occur. And one of your slides suggests that might be the right way to think about it as well. But can you just confirm?

Question: Terence Flynn - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC - Analyst : Great. Thanks so much. I was just wondering if you could maybe elaborate on your expectations for Zepbound payer dynamics and access this year, particularly the impact from the OSA label -- I know you've also filed for heart failure -- and how you expect that to play out over the course of the year. And then anything on next steps on the compounding litigation that we should be focused on? Thank you.

Question: Courtney Breen - Bernstein - Analyst : Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the call today. I just wanted to zoom into orforglipron specifically, and I think you took the chance to make the point about diabetes and diabetes population and their weight loss. Can you just talk a little bit more about kind of the potential positioning, particularly in the context of kind of that single injectable GLP-1 kind of anticipated efficacy that you were guiding to?

Question: Chris Schott - JPMorgan - Analyst : Great. Thanks so much. Just another orforglipron question. You've now launched a pretty wide range of studies, I guess to say hypertension, beyond the initial obesity and type 2 diabetes studies. Can you just elaborate a little bit more on what gives you confidence in running such a wide range of programs without having seen those initial readouts, particularly maybe some of the tolerability profiles with the drugs titration, et cetera? I'm just trying to think of how you balance kind of the risk taking there with the confidence in the asset you have right now. Thank you.

Question: Geoff Meacham - Citi - Analyst : Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just had one on commercial tirzepatide in bigger settings like diabetes prevention or if the SURPASS-CVOT is successful, would this be a tipping point on broader reimbursement or access? I mean, it's clear you have a benefit there, but I wasn't sure if commercial payers of Medicare are looking for yet even more data to support kind of risk benefit. Thank you.

Question: Conor MacKay - BMO Capital Markets - Analyst : Hi there. This is Conor MacKay on for Evan. Thanks for taking our question. Given some of the slower launches we've seen from peers in the Alzheimer's space, can you maybe talk a bit about the lessons you've taken from those, and then as well as sort of your experience early days in the Kisunla launch? Thank you.

Question: Umer Raffat - Evercore ISI - Analyst : Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. It's certainly very encouraging to see the range of new Phase 3 trials being initiated with orforglipron in the past few months. But there's one trial in particular I noticed has not been initiated or may not be in the plans, which is an outcomes trial. I'm just curious what's the thought process behind that? Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. FEBRUARY 06, 2025 / 3:00PM, LLY.N - Q4 2024 Eli Lilly and Co Earnings Call

Question: Steve Scala - TD Cowen (Research) - Analyst : Well, thank you so much. I apologize in advance for this question. But over the past six to nine months, there has been a consistent cadence of data points questioning the size of the addressable and accessible obesity market, none of which are news, but include: slowing prescription trends, Lilly meeting demand at least a year early, Lilly instituting DTC and extending co-pay cards despite struggling to meet demand, Lilly launching in OUS markets despite struggling to meet US demand, and significant stocking fluctuations and challenges in guiding. Taken collectively, these points are concerning. I think you will say that they all relate to the unprecedented size of the market and meeting its demand. But can you state that there has not been any conversations within Lilly questioning whether we are all significantly over our skis on this market and that the manufacturing buildout may simply be too aggressive? Thank you.

Question: Mohit Bansal - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC - Analyst : Great. Thank you very much for taking my question. And I have a question regarding sleep apnea. Now that you have sleep apnea on label, how have the discussions with the prescribers, as well as payers, have gone so far? The one pushback we hear is that these patients are often treated by sleep specialists, and there's a general shortage of those specialists here. So could you talk a little bit about the call points and then how you're thinking about this?

Question: Dave Risinger - Leerink Partners - Analyst : Thanks very much. So my incretin-related questions have been asked. I wanted to just pivot to the long-acting relaxin candidate, volenrelaxin. And so the company had advanced it into a CKD trial in the fourth quarter, but then recently canceled both the heart failure and CKD programs. Dan, I'm hoping you could provide some more color on what drove the action, plus how you now view the long-acting relaxin mechanism, including potential for future development in other cardiopulmonary diseases. Thanks very much.

Question: Akash Tewari - Jefferies LLC - Analyst : Thanks so much. So at JPMorgan, your team mentioned you expect GLP-1 pricing to be relatively stable in 2025. Are you implying that while you'll give additional discounts to the channel to improve access, that will be offset by improved adherence? Or is it more -- will these reach the steady state on discounts, at least until semaglutide gets put under IRA negotiation in 2026? Thanks.

Question: Alexandria Hammond - Wolfe Research - Analyst : Thanks for taking the question. With the Ro partnership, how does Lilly envision this relationship evolving? And a follow-up, can you help frame the opportunity associated with Zepbound vials, and how is it expected to shift over time?

Question: Chris Shibutani - Goldman Sachs - Analyst : Apologies, I was on mute. For the orforglipron launch, you previously stated that you're doing manufacturing scale-up to be prepared for a full launch at potential approval. What is embedded in that assumption? Can you talk a little bit about the approach for timing of orforglipron in terms of diabetes versus obesity? Will it be simultaneous or one before the other? US versus international? We certainly saw the injectable business do a prioritized US launch. And then should we also expect a similar kind of, quote, new product launch cadence with patient assistance programs and the implementation of channel tools like LillyDirect? Should all those be at the outset? Thanks.

Question: James Shin - Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. - Analyst : Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Another one for Dan on orforglipron. Appreciate the earlier comments on indexing orforglipron's efficacy to sema and the Phase 3 titration schedule. But can you go over how this titration schedule may impact the Phase 2 weight loss, A1c, and safety results published in Lancet and New England Journal? Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. FEBRUARY 06, 2025 / 3:00PM, LLY.N - Q4 2024 Eli Lilly and Co Earnings Call

Question: Trung Huynh - UBS Limited - Analyst : Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. So for the first orfor study on diabetes, thank you so much for the level set there. I have a similar question on retatrutide. We noticed in your slides there was a Phase 3 readout in obesity and overweight patients with osteoarthritis of the knee as a potential event for '25. So one of the primary endpoints is weight loss. Could that be a reasonable comp for the obesity studies in '26, unlike what you flagged with orfor and diabetes?

Question: Dave Risinger - Leerink Partners - Analyst : Yes, thanks very much. I was just hoping you could clarify the comment earlier. I think there was a comment about additional PBM coverage coming in March. I didn't quite catch that. If you could just provide some more color and quantify the potential impact on the opportunity for script trends following that occurring. Thank you. REFINITIV STREETEVENTS | www.refinitiv.com | Contact Us consent of Refinitiv. 'Refinitiv' and the Refinitiv logo are registered trademarks of Refinitiv and its affiliated companies. FEBRUARY 06, 2025 / 3:00PM, LLY.N - Q4 2024 Eli Lilly and Co Earnings Call